A Pre-Operative Prognostic Score for Patients With Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma Who Underwent Resection

BACKGROUND: Previous studies demonstrated a promising prognosis in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients who underwent surgery, yet a consensus of which population would benefit most from surgery is still unreached. METHOD: A total of 496 advanced HCC patients who initially underwent liver resection were consecutively collected. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was performed to select significant pre-operative factors for recurrence-free survival (RFS). A prognostic score constructed from these factors was used to divide patients into different risk groups. Survivals were compared between groups with log-rank test. The area under curves (AUC) of the time-dependent receiver operating characteristics was used to evaluate the predictive accuracy of prognostic score. RESULT: For the entire cohort, the median overall survival (OS) was 23.0 months and the median RFS was 12.1 months. Patients were divided into two risk groups according to the prognostic score constructed with ALBI score, tumor size, tumor-invaded liver segments, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase, alpha fetoprotein, and portal vein tumor thrombus stage. The median RFS of the low-risk group was significantly longer than that of the high-risk group in both the training (10.1 vs 2.9 months, P<0.001) and the validation groups (13.7 vs 4.6 months, P=0.002). The AUCs of the prognostic score in predicting survival were 0.70 to 0.71 in the training group and 0.71 to 0.72 in the validation group. CONCLUSION: Surgery could provide promising survival for HCC patients at an advanced stage. Our developed pre-operative prognostic score is effective in identifying advanced-stage HCC patients with better survival benefit for surgery.