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Impact of equatorial Atlantic variability on ENSO predictive skill

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a key mode of climate variability with worldwide climate impacts. Recent studies have highlighted the impact of other tropical oceans on its variability. In particular, observations have demonstrated that summer Atlantic Niños (Niñas) favor the development of P...

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Autores principales: Exarchou, Eleftheria, Ortega, Pablo, Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belén, Losada, Teresa, Polo, Irene, Prodhomme, Chloé
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7954793/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33712619
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21857-2
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author Exarchou, Eleftheria
Ortega, Pablo
Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belén
Losada, Teresa
Polo, Irene
Prodhomme, Chloé
author_facet Exarchou, Eleftheria
Ortega, Pablo
Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belén
Losada, Teresa
Polo, Irene
Prodhomme, Chloé
author_sort Exarchou, Eleftheria
collection PubMed
description El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a key mode of climate variability with worldwide climate impacts. Recent studies have highlighted the impact of other tropical oceans on its variability. In particular, observations have demonstrated that summer Atlantic Niños (Niñas) favor the development of Pacific Niñas (Niños) the following winter, but it is unclear how well climate models capture this teleconnection and its role in defining the seasonal predictive skill of ENSO. Here we use an ensemble of seasonal forecast systems to demonstrate that a better representation of equatorial Atlantic variability in summer and its lagged teleconnection mechanism with the Pacific relates to enhanced predictive capacity of autumn/winter ENSO. An additional sensitivity study further shows that correcting SST variability in equatorial Atlantic improves different aspects of forecast skill in the Tropical Pacific, boosting ENSO skill. This study thus emphasizes that new efforts to improve the representation of equatorial Atlantic variability, a region with long standing systematic model biases, can foster predictive skill in the region, the Tropical Pacific and beyond, through the global impacts of ENSO.
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spelling pubmed-79547932021-03-28 Impact of equatorial Atlantic variability on ENSO predictive skill Exarchou, Eleftheria Ortega, Pablo Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belén Losada, Teresa Polo, Irene Prodhomme, Chloé Nat Commun Article El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a key mode of climate variability with worldwide climate impacts. Recent studies have highlighted the impact of other tropical oceans on its variability. In particular, observations have demonstrated that summer Atlantic Niños (Niñas) favor the development of Pacific Niñas (Niños) the following winter, but it is unclear how well climate models capture this teleconnection and its role in defining the seasonal predictive skill of ENSO. Here we use an ensemble of seasonal forecast systems to demonstrate that a better representation of equatorial Atlantic variability in summer and its lagged teleconnection mechanism with the Pacific relates to enhanced predictive capacity of autumn/winter ENSO. An additional sensitivity study further shows that correcting SST variability in equatorial Atlantic improves different aspects of forecast skill in the Tropical Pacific, boosting ENSO skill. This study thus emphasizes that new efforts to improve the representation of equatorial Atlantic variability, a region with long standing systematic model biases, can foster predictive skill in the region, the Tropical Pacific and beyond, through the global impacts of ENSO. Nature Publishing Group UK 2021-03-12 /pmc/articles/PMC7954793/ /pubmed/33712619 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21857-2 Text en © The Author(s) 2021 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
spellingShingle Article
Exarchou, Eleftheria
Ortega, Pablo
Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belén
Losada, Teresa
Polo, Irene
Prodhomme, Chloé
Impact of equatorial Atlantic variability on ENSO predictive skill
title Impact of equatorial Atlantic variability on ENSO predictive skill
title_full Impact of equatorial Atlantic variability on ENSO predictive skill
title_fullStr Impact of equatorial Atlantic variability on ENSO predictive skill
title_full_unstemmed Impact of equatorial Atlantic variability on ENSO predictive skill
title_short Impact of equatorial Atlantic variability on ENSO predictive skill
title_sort impact of equatorial atlantic variability on enso predictive skill
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7954793/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33712619
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21857-2
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