Progress Toward Achieving National Targets for Reducing Coronary Heart Disease and Stroke Mortality: A County‐Level Perspective

BACKGROUND: The American Heart Association and Healthy People 2020 established objectives to reduce coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke death rates by 20% by the year 2020, with 2007 as the baseline year. We examined county‐level achievement of the targeted reduction in CHD and stroke death rates from 2007 to 2017. METHODS AND RESULTS: Applying a hierarchical Bayesian model to National Vital Statistics data, we estimated annual age‐standardized county‐level death rates and the corresponding percentage change during 2007 to 2017 for those aged 35 to 64 and ≥65 years and by urban‐rural classification. For those aged ≥35 years, 56.1% (95% credible interval [CI], 54.1%–57.7%) and 39.8% (95% CI, 36.9%–42.7%) of counties achieved a 20% reduction in CHD and stroke death rates, respectively. For both CHD and stroke, the proportions of counties achieving a 20% reduction were lower for those aged 35 to 64 years than for those aged ≥65 years (CHD: 32.2% [95% CI, 29.4%–35.6%] and 64.1% [95% CI, 62.3%–65.7%]), respectively; stroke: 17.9% [95% CI, 13.9%–22.2%] and 45.6% [95% CI, 42.8%–48.3%]). Counties achieving a 20% reduction in death rates were more commonly urban counties (except stroke death rates for those aged ≥65 years). CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis found substantial, but uneven, achievement of the targeted 20% reduction in CHD and stroke death rates, defined by the American Heart Association and Healthy People. The large proportion of counties not achieving the targeted reduction suggests a renewed focus on CHD and stroke prevention and treatment, especially among younger adults living outside of urban centers. These county‐level patterns provide a foundation for robust responses by clinicians, public health professionals, and communities.