Effects of temperature frequency trends on projected japonica rice (Oryza sativa L.) yield and dry matter distribution with elevated carbon dioxide

In this study, we investigated the effects of temperature frequency trends on the projected yield and dry matter distribution of japonica rice (Oryza sativa L.) with elevated carbon dioxide (CO(2)) under future climate change scenarios in northwestern China. The Crop Environment Resource Synthesis (CERES)-Rice model was forced with the outputs from three general circulation models (GCMs) to project the rice growth and yield. Future temperature trends had the most significant impact on rice growth, and the frequency of higher than optimal temperatures (∼24–28 (o)C) for rice growth showed a marked increase in the future, which greatly restricted photosynthesis. The frequency of extreme temperatures (>35 (o)C) also increased, exerting a strong impact on rice fertilization and producing a significantly reduced yield. Although the increased temperature suppressed photosynthetic production, the elevated CO(2) stimulated this production; therefore, the net result was determined by the dominant process. The aboveground biomass at harvest trended downward when temperature became the major factor in photosynthetic production and trended upward when CO(2)-fertilization dominated the process. The trends for the leaf and stem dry matter at harvest were affected not only by changes in photosynthesis but also by the dry matter distribution to the panicles. The trends for the rice panicle dry matter at harvest were closely related to the effects of temperature and CO(2) on photosynthetic production, and extreme temperatures also remarkably affected these trends by reducing the number of fertilized spikelets. The trends of rice yield were very similar to those of panicle dry matter because the panicle dry matter is mostly composed of grain weight (yield). This study provides a better understanding of the japonica rice processes, particularly under extreme climate scenarios, which will likely become more frequent in the future.