Does the Price Support Policy Drive a Balanced Distribution of Profits in the Chinese Dairy Supply Chain? Implications for Supplier and Consumer Psychology

Evaluating the price policy of raw milk is of great significance to the sustainable development of an industry supply chain. In this context, our study used the multi-period difference-in-difference method to systematically examine the impact of the policy implementation on product price and profit distribution in the supply chain. The results showed the following: (1) the price of raw milk in the implementation area of the price support policy is 13.54% higher than that of the unimplemented area; (2) the effect of price increase in the western region (15.5%) is higher than that in the eastern region (13%), and the central region (10.73%); (3) furthermore, the purchase price guidance policy of raw milk drives price increase or price suppression in the links of the supply chain to promote a balanced distribution of profits among the participants in the chain. These conclusions all have good stability and have reference significance for further improving and adjusting the price support policy of raw milk to realize the sustainable development of the Chinese dairy industry. This will enhance the production confidence of Chinese raw milk producers and improve Chinese consumers’ expectations and consumer psychology regarding domestic dairy products.