Evaluation of winter pressures on general practice in Manchester: a cross-sectional analysis of nine GP practices

BACKGROUND: The Nuffield Trust’s report on NHS winter pressures highlights a lack of data for primary care, with a consequential focus on secondary care. An increase in data is required on the scale of the winter demand on primary care, so the need for investment in this area can be clearly seen. AIM: To quantify seasonal variation in workload in primary and secondary care. DESIGN & SETTING: Analysis of data for nine GP practices in Greater Manchester with a patient population of 75 421. METHOD: Descriptive and comparative analyses were performed for winter and summer periods in 2018–2019. Data were obtained from the North of England Clinical Support Unit (NECSU) via the Rapid Actionable Insight Driving Reform (RAIDR) toolkit, and EMIS Enterprise clinical audit tools. RESULTS: Accident and emergency (A&E) attendances increased by 4% (P = 0.035) during winter with no difference in the number of hospital admissions (P = 0.668). The number of problems (defined as separate diagnoses or causes for a GP consultation, for example, chest infection or medication request) seen in general practice increased by 61% (P<0.001) in winter compared to summer, as did the number of GP consultations, which was also 61% (P<0.001). Respiratory diagnoses saw the greatest seasonal variation accounting for 10% in winter compared with 4% in summer (P<0.001). Self-referral accounted for 66% of all A&E attendance and increased by 16% in winter. GP referral accounted for 7% in winter and 6% in summer (P = 0.002). CONCLUSION: General practice observed a greater seasonal increase in presenting patients compared with secondary care. Any winter pressures strategy should target both respiratory illness and patients who self-refer to A&E. Transferring 50% of self-referrals in Manchester to GP appointments would achieve a £2.3 million cost saving. Increasing provision in primary care requires funding and increased appointments, but more importantly improved patient opportunities to easily access timely advice and assistance.