Estimation of COVID-19 under-ascertainment in Kano, Nigeria during the early phase of the epidemics

This study aims to estimate the number of COVID-19 cases under- ascertained ([Formula: see text]), and the basic reproduction number ([Formula: see text]) during the early stage of epidemic in Kano, Nigeria. We adopt a simple exponential growth model to capture the patterns of COVID-19 early epidemi...

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Autores principales: Musa, Salihu S., Zhao, Shi, Hussaini, Nafiu, Zhuang, Zian, Wu, Yushan, Abdulhamid, Abdurrahman, Wang, Maggie H., He, Daihai
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: THE AUTHORS. Published by Elsevier BV on behalf of Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University. 2021
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7962518/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2021.03.003
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author Musa, Salihu S.
Zhao, Shi
Hussaini, Nafiu
Zhuang, Zian
Wu, Yushan
Abdulhamid, Abdurrahman
Wang, Maggie H.
He, Daihai
author_facet Musa, Salihu S.
Zhao, Shi
Hussaini, Nafiu
Zhuang, Zian
Wu, Yushan
Abdulhamid, Abdurrahman
Wang, Maggie H.
He, Daihai
author_sort Musa, Salihu S.
collection PubMed
description This study aims to estimate the number of COVID-19 cases under- ascertained ([Formula: see text]), and the basic reproduction number ([Formula: see text]) during the early stage of epidemic in Kano, Nigeria. We adopt a simple exponential growth model to capture the patterns of COVID-19 early epidemic curve in Kano. The R(0) is estimated at 2.7 (95%CI: 2.5, 3.0). We find that the number of COVID-19 cases under-ascertained likely occurred during the fourth week of April 2020, and should be considered for future epidemiological investigations and mitigation plan.
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spelling pubmed-79625182021-03-16 Estimation of COVID-19 under-ascertainment in Kano, Nigeria during the early phase of the epidemics Musa, Salihu S. Zhao, Shi Hussaini, Nafiu Zhuang, Zian Wu, Yushan Abdulhamid, Abdurrahman Wang, Maggie H. He, Daihai Alexandria Engineering Journal Article This study aims to estimate the number of COVID-19 cases under- ascertained ([Formula: see text]), and the basic reproduction number ([Formula: see text]) during the early stage of epidemic in Kano, Nigeria. We adopt a simple exponential growth model to capture the patterns of COVID-19 early epidemic curve in Kano. The R(0) is estimated at 2.7 (95%CI: 2.5, 3.0). We find that the number of COVID-19 cases under-ascertained likely occurred during the fourth week of April 2020, and should be considered for future epidemiological investigations and mitigation plan. THE AUTHORS. Published by Elsevier BV on behalf of Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University. 2021-10 2021-03-16 /pmc/articles/PMC7962518/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2021.03.003 Text en © 2021 THE AUTHORS. Published by Elsevier BV on behalf of Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Musa, Salihu S.
Zhao, Shi
Hussaini, Nafiu
Zhuang, Zian
Wu, Yushan
Abdulhamid, Abdurrahman
Wang, Maggie H.
He, Daihai
Estimation of COVID-19 under-ascertainment in Kano, Nigeria during the early phase of the epidemics
title Estimation of COVID-19 under-ascertainment in Kano, Nigeria during the early phase of the epidemics
title_full Estimation of COVID-19 under-ascertainment in Kano, Nigeria during the early phase of the epidemics
title_fullStr Estimation of COVID-19 under-ascertainment in Kano, Nigeria during the early phase of the epidemics
title_full_unstemmed Estimation of COVID-19 under-ascertainment in Kano, Nigeria during the early phase of the epidemics
title_short Estimation of COVID-19 under-ascertainment in Kano, Nigeria during the early phase of the epidemics
title_sort estimation of covid-19 under-ascertainment in kano, nigeria during the early phase of the epidemics
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7962518/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2021.03.003
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