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The Trend of HIV/AIDS Incidence and Risks Associated with Age, Period, and Birth Cohort in Four Central African Countries

The HIV/AIDS incidence rates have decreased in African countries although the rates are still high in Sub-Saharan Africa. Our study aimed to examine the long-term trend of the overall HIV/AIDS incidence rates in four countries of the central region of Africa, using data from the Global Burden of Dis...

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Autores principales: Martial, Nodjimadji Tamlengar, Mubarik, Sumaira, Yu, Chuanhua
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7967399/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33806629
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18052564
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author Martial, Nodjimadji Tamlengar
Mubarik, Sumaira
Yu, Chuanhua
author_facet Martial, Nodjimadji Tamlengar
Mubarik, Sumaira
Yu, Chuanhua
author_sort Martial, Nodjimadji Tamlengar
collection PubMed
description The HIV/AIDS incidence rates have decreased in African countries although the rates are still high in Sub-Saharan Africa. Our study aimed to examine the long-term trend of the overall HIV/AIDS incidence rates in four countries of the central region of Africa, using data from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2019 study. The Age–Period–Cohort statistical model analysis was used to measure the trends of HIV/AIDS incidence rates in each of the four countries. HIV/AIDS incidence rates decreased slowly in Cameroon (CAM), Chad, and Central African Republic (CAR), but considerably in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) from 1990–2019. HIV/AIDS incidence rates in the four countries were at their peaks in the age group of 25–29 years. According to the age relative risks, individuals aged between 15 and 49 years old are at high risk of HIV/AIDS incidence in the four countries. The period and cohort relative risks have decreased in all four countries. Although CAM recorded an increase of 59.6% in the period relative risks (RRs) between 1990 and 1999, HIV/AIDS incidence has decreased dramatically in all four countries, especially after 2000. The decrease of the period RRs (relative risk) by nearly 20.6-folds and the decrease of the cohort RRs from 147.65 to almost 0.0034 in the DRC made it the country with the most significant decrease of the period and cohort RRs compared to the rest. HIV/AIDS incidence rates are decreasing in each of the four countries. Our study findings could provide solid ground for policymakers to promptly decrease HIV/AIDS incidence by strengthening the prevention policies to eliminate the public health threat of HIV/AIDS by 2030 as one of the targets of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
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spelling pubmed-79673992021-03-18 The Trend of HIV/AIDS Incidence and Risks Associated with Age, Period, and Birth Cohort in Four Central African Countries Martial, Nodjimadji Tamlengar Mubarik, Sumaira Yu, Chuanhua Int J Environ Res Public Health Article The HIV/AIDS incidence rates have decreased in African countries although the rates are still high in Sub-Saharan Africa. Our study aimed to examine the long-term trend of the overall HIV/AIDS incidence rates in four countries of the central region of Africa, using data from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2019 study. The Age–Period–Cohort statistical model analysis was used to measure the trends of HIV/AIDS incidence rates in each of the four countries. HIV/AIDS incidence rates decreased slowly in Cameroon (CAM), Chad, and Central African Republic (CAR), but considerably in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) from 1990–2019. HIV/AIDS incidence rates in the four countries were at their peaks in the age group of 25–29 years. According to the age relative risks, individuals aged between 15 and 49 years old are at high risk of HIV/AIDS incidence in the four countries. The period and cohort relative risks have decreased in all four countries. Although CAM recorded an increase of 59.6% in the period relative risks (RRs) between 1990 and 1999, HIV/AIDS incidence has decreased dramatically in all four countries, especially after 2000. The decrease of the period RRs (relative risk) by nearly 20.6-folds and the decrease of the cohort RRs from 147.65 to almost 0.0034 in the DRC made it the country with the most significant decrease of the period and cohort RRs compared to the rest. HIV/AIDS incidence rates are decreasing in each of the four countries. Our study findings could provide solid ground for policymakers to promptly decrease HIV/AIDS incidence by strengthening the prevention policies to eliminate the public health threat of HIV/AIDS by 2030 as one of the targets of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). MDPI 2021-03-04 /pmc/articles/PMC7967399/ /pubmed/33806629 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18052564 Text en © 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Martial, Nodjimadji Tamlengar
Mubarik, Sumaira
Yu, Chuanhua
The Trend of HIV/AIDS Incidence and Risks Associated with Age, Period, and Birth Cohort in Four Central African Countries
title The Trend of HIV/AIDS Incidence and Risks Associated with Age, Period, and Birth Cohort in Four Central African Countries
title_full The Trend of HIV/AIDS Incidence and Risks Associated with Age, Period, and Birth Cohort in Four Central African Countries
title_fullStr The Trend of HIV/AIDS Incidence and Risks Associated with Age, Period, and Birth Cohort in Four Central African Countries
title_full_unstemmed The Trend of HIV/AIDS Incidence and Risks Associated with Age, Period, and Birth Cohort in Four Central African Countries
title_short The Trend of HIV/AIDS Incidence and Risks Associated with Age, Period, and Birth Cohort in Four Central African Countries
title_sort trend of hiv/aids incidence and risks associated with age, period, and birth cohort in four central african countries
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7967399/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33806629
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18052564
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