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SEAHIR: A Specialized Compartmental Model for COVID-19
The SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed) model is widely used in epidemiology to mathematically model the spread of infectious diseases with incubation periods. However, the SEIR model prototype is generic and not able to capture the unique nature of a novel viral pandemic such as SARS-CoV-2....
Autores principales: | , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
MDPI
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7967501/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33800896 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18052667 |
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author | Leontitsis, Alexandros Senok, Abiola Alsheikh-Ali, Alawi Al Nasser, Younus Loney, Tom Alshamsi, Aamena |
author_facet | Leontitsis, Alexandros Senok, Abiola Alsheikh-Ali, Alawi Al Nasser, Younus Loney, Tom Alshamsi, Aamena |
author_sort | Leontitsis, Alexandros |
collection | PubMed |
description | The SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed) model is widely used in epidemiology to mathematically model the spread of infectious diseases with incubation periods. However, the SEIR model prototype is generic and not able to capture the unique nature of a novel viral pandemic such as SARS-CoV-2. We have developed and tested a specialized version of the SEIR model, called SEAHIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Asymptomatic-Hospitalized-Isolated-Removed) model. This proposed model is able to capture the unique dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak including further dividing the Infected compartment into: (1) “Asymptomatic”, (2) “Isolated” and (3) “Hospitalized” to delineate the transmission specifics of each compartment and forecast healthcare requirements. The model also takes into consideration the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions such as physical distancing and different testing strategies on the number of confirmed cases. We used a publicly available dataset from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as a case study to optimize the main parameters of the model and benchmarked it against the historical number of cases. The SEAHIR model was used by decision-makers in Dubai’s COVID-19 Command and Control Center to make timely decisions on developing testing strategies, increasing healthcare capacity, and implementing interventions to contain the spread of the virus. The novel six-compartment SEAHIR model could be utilized by decision-makers and researchers in other countries for current or future pandemics. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7967501 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | MDPI |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-79675012021-03-18 SEAHIR: A Specialized Compartmental Model for COVID-19 Leontitsis, Alexandros Senok, Abiola Alsheikh-Ali, Alawi Al Nasser, Younus Loney, Tom Alshamsi, Aamena Int J Environ Res Public Health Article The SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed) model is widely used in epidemiology to mathematically model the spread of infectious diseases with incubation periods. However, the SEIR model prototype is generic and not able to capture the unique nature of a novel viral pandemic such as SARS-CoV-2. We have developed and tested a specialized version of the SEIR model, called SEAHIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Asymptomatic-Hospitalized-Isolated-Removed) model. This proposed model is able to capture the unique dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak including further dividing the Infected compartment into: (1) “Asymptomatic”, (2) “Isolated” and (3) “Hospitalized” to delineate the transmission specifics of each compartment and forecast healthcare requirements. The model also takes into consideration the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions such as physical distancing and different testing strategies on the number of confirmed cases. We used a publicly available dataset from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as a case study to optimize the main parameters of the model and benchmarked it against the historical number of cases. The SEAHIR model was used by decision-makers in Dubai’s COVID-19 Command and Control Center to make timely decisions on developing testing strategies, increasing healthcare capacity, and implementing interventions to contain the spread of the virus. The novel six-compartment SEAHIR model could be utilized by decision-makers and researchers in other countries for current or future pandemics. MDPI 2021-03-06 /pmc/articles/PMC7967501/ /pubmed/33800896 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18052667 Text en © 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). |
spellingShingle | Article Leontitsis, Alexandros Senok, Abiola Alsheikh-Ali, Alawi Al Nasser, Younus Loney, Tom Alshamsi, Aamena SEAHIR: A Specialized Compartmental Model for COVID-19 |
title | SEAHIR: A Specialized Compartmental Model for COVID-19 |
title_full | SEAHIR: A Specialized Compartmental Model for COVID-19 |
title_fullStr | SEAHIR: A Specialized Compartmental Model for COVID-19 |
title_full_unstemmed | SEAHIR: A Specialized Compartmental Model for COVID-19 |
title_short | SEAHIR: A Specialized Compartmental Model for COVID-19 |
title_sort | seahir: a specialized compartmental model for covid-19 |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7967501/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33800896 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18052667 |
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