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SEAHIR: A Specialized Compartmental Model for COVID-19

The SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed) model is widely used in epidemiology to mathematically model the spread of infectious diseases with incubation periods. However, the SEIR model prototype is generic and not able to capture the unique nature of a novel viral pandemic such as SARS-CoV-2....

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Autores principales: Leontitsis, Alexandros, Senok, Abiola, Alsheikh-Ali, Alawi, Al Nasser, Younus, Loney, Tom, Alshamsi, Aamena
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7967501/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33800896
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18052667
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author Leontitsis, Alexandros
Senok, Abiola
Alsheikh-Ali, Alawi
Al Nasser, Younus
Loney, Tom
Alshamsi, Aamena
author_facet Leontitsis, Alexandros
Senok, Abiola
Alsheikh-Ali, Alawi
Al Nasser, Younus
Loney, Tom
Alshamsi, Aamena
author_sort Leontitsis, Alexandros
collection PubMed
description The SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed) model is widely used in epidemiology to mathematically model the spread of infectious diseases with incubation periods. However, the SEIR model prototype is generic and not able to capture the unique nature of a novel viral pandemic such as SARS-CoV-2. We have developed and tested a specialized version of the SEIR model, called SEAHIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Asymptomatic-Hospitalized-Isolated-Removed) model. This proposed model is able to capture the unique dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak including further dividing the Infected compartment into: (1) “Asymptomatic”, (2) “Isolated” and (3) “Hospitalized” to delineate the transmission specifics of each compartment and forecast healthcare requirements. The model also takes into consideration the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions such as physical distancing and different testing strategies on the number of confirmed cases. We used a publicly available dataset from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as a case study to optimize the main parameters of the model and benchmarked it against the historical number of cases. The SEAHIR model was used by decision-makers in Dubai’s COVID-19 Command and Control Center to make timely decisions on developing testing strategies, increasing healthcare capacity, and implementing interventions to contain the spread of the virus. The novel six-compartment SEAHIR model could be utilized by decision-makers and researchers in other countries for current or future pandemics.
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spelling pubmed-79675012021-03-18 SEAHIR: A Specialized Compartmental Model for COVID-19 Leontitsis, Alexandros Senok, Abiola Alsheikh-Ali, Alawi Al Nasser, Younus Loney, Tom Alshamsi, Aamena Int J Environ Res Public Health Article The SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed) model is widely used in epidemiology to mathematically model the spread of infectious diseases with incubation periods. However, the SEIR model prototype is generic and not able to capture the unique nature of a novel viral pandemic such as SARS-CoV-2. We have developed and tested a specialized version of the SEIR model, called SEAHIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Asymptomatic-Hospitalized-Isolated-Removed) model. This proposed model is able to capture the unique dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak including further dividing the Infected compartment into: (1) “Asymptomatic”, (2) “Isolated” and (3) “Hospitalized” to delineate the transmission specifics of each compartment and forecast healthcare requirements. The model also takes into consideration the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions such as physical distancing and different testing strategies on the number of confirmed cases. We used a publicly available dataset from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as a case study to optimize the main parameters of the model and benchmarked it against the historical number of cases. The SEAHIR model was used by decision-makers in Dubai’s COVID-19 Command and Control Center to make timely decisions on developing testing strategies, increasing healthcare capacity, and implementing interventions to contain the spread of the virus. The novel six-compartment SEAHIR model could be utilized by decision-makers and researchers in other countries for current or future pandemics. MDPI 2021-03-06 /pmc/articles/PMC7967501/ /pubmed/33800896 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18052667 Text en © 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Leontitsis, Alexandros
Senok, Abiola
Alsheikh-Ali, Alawi
Al Nasser, Younus
Loney, Tom
Alshamsi, Aamena
SEAHIR: A Specialized Compartmental Model for COVID-19
title SEAHIR: A Specialized Compartmental Model for COVID-19
title_full SEAHIR: A Specialized Compartmental Model for COVID-19
title_fullStr SEAHIR: A Specialized Compartmental Model for COVID-19
title_full_unstemmed SEAHIR: A Specialized Compartmental Model for COVID-19
title_short SEAHIR: A Specialized Compartmental Model for COVID-19
title_sort seahir: a specialized compartmental model for covid-19
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7967501/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33800896
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18052667
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