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A Two-Phase Stochastic Dynamic Model for COVID-19 Mid-Term Policy Recommendations in Greece: A Pathway towards Mass Vaccination

From 7 November 2020, Greece adopted a second nationwide lockdown policy to mitigate the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 (the first took place from 23 March to 4 May 2020), just as the second wave of COVID-19 was advancing, as did other European countries. To secure the full benefits of mass vaccination,...

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Autores principales: Rachaniotis, Nikolaos P., Dasaklis, Thomas K., Fotopoulos, Filippos, Tinios, Platon
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7967634/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33802501
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18052497
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author Rachaniotis, Nikolaos P.
Dasaklis, Thomas K.
Fotopoulos, Filippos
Tinios, Platon
author_facet Rachaniotis, Nikolaos P.
Dasaklis, Thomas K.
Fotopoulos, Filippos
Tinios, Platon
author_sort Rachaniotis, Nikolaos P.
collection PubMed
description From 7 November 2020, Greece adopted a second nationwide lockdown policy to mitigate the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 (the first took place from 23 March to 4 May 2020), just as the second wave of COVID-19 was advancing, as did other European countries. To secure the full benefits of mass vaccination, which started in early January 2021, it is of utmost importance to complement it with mid-term non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). The objective was to minimize human losses and to limit social and economic costs. In this paper a two-phase stochastic dynamic network compartmental model (a pre-vaccination SEIR until 15 February 2021 and a post-vaccination SVEIR from 15 February 2021 to 30 June 2021) is developed. Three scenarios are assessed for the first phase: (a) A baseline scenario, which lifts the national lockdown and all NPIs in January 2021; (b) a “semi-lockdown” scenario with school opening, partial retail sector operation, universal mask wearing, and social distancing/teleworking in January 2021; and (c) a “rolling lockdown” scenario combining a partial lifting of measures in January 2021 followed by a third nationwide lockdown in February 2021. In the second phase three scenarios with different vaccination rates are assessed. Publicly available data along with some first results of the SHARE COVID-19 survey conducted in Greece are used as input. The results regarding the first phase indicate that the “semi-lockdown” scenario clearly outperforms the third lockdown scenario (5.7% less expected fatalities); the second phase is extremely sensitive on the availability of sufficient vaccine supplies and high vaccination rates.
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spelling pubmed-79676342021-03-18 A Two-Phase Stochastic Dynamic Model for COVID-19 Mid-Term Policy Recommendations in Greece: A Pathway towards Mass Vaccination Rachaniotis, Nikolaos P. Dasaklis, Thomas K. Fotopoulos, Filippos Tinios, Platon Int J Environ Res Public Health Article From 7 November 2020, Greece adopted a second nationwide lockdown policy to mitigate the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 (the first took place from 23 March to 4 May 2020), just as the second wave of COVID-19 was advancing, as did other European countries. To secure the full benefits of mass vaccination, which started in early January 2021, it is of utmost importance to complement it with mid-term non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). The objective was to minimize human losses and to limit social and economic costs. In this paper a two-phase stochastic dynamic network compartmental model (a pre-vaccination SEIR until 15 February 2021 and a post-vaccination SVEIR from 15 February 2021 to 30 June 2021) is developed. Three scenarios are assessed for the first phase: (a) A baseline scenario, which lifts the national lockdown and all NPIs in January 2021; (b) a “semi-lockdown” scenario with school opening, partial retail sector operation, universal mask wearing, and social distancing/teleworking in January 2021; and (c) a “rolling lockdown” scenario combining a partial lifting of measures in January 2021 followed by a third nationwide lockdown in February 2021. In the second phase three scenarios with different vaccination rates are assessed. Publicly available data along with some first results of the SHARE COVID-19 survey conducted in Greece are used as input. The results regarding the first phase indicate that the “semi-lockdown” scenario clearly outperforms the third lockdown scenario (5.7% less expected fatalities); the second phase is extremely sensitive on the availability of sufficient vaccine supplies and high vaccination rates. MDPI 2021-03-03 /pmc/articles/PMC7967634/ /pubmed/33802501 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18052497 Text en © 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Rachaniotis, Nikolaos P.
Dasaklis, Thomas K.
Fotopoulos, Filippos
Tinios, Platon
A Two-Phase Stochastic Dynamic Model for COVID-19 Mid-Term Policy Recommendations in Greece: A Pathway towards Mass Vaccination
title A Two-Phase Stochastic Dynamic Model for COVID-19 Mid-Term Policy Recommendations in Greece: A Pathway towards Mass Vaccination
title_full A Two-Phase Stochastic Dynamic Model for COVID-19 Mid-Term Policy Recommendations in Greece: A Pathway towards Mass Vaccination
title_fullStr A Two-Phase Stochastic Dynamic Model for COVID-19 Mid-Term Policy Recommendations in Greece: A Pathway towards Mass Vaccination
title_full_unstemmed A Two-Phase Stochastic Dynamic Model for COVID-19 Mid-Term Policy Recommendations in Greece: A Pathway towards Mass Vaccination
title_short A Two-Phase Stochastic Dynamic Model for COVID-19 Mid-Term Policy Recommendations in Greece: A Pathway towards Mass Vaccination
title_sort two-phase stochastic dynamic model for covid-19 mid-term policy recommendations in greece: a pathway towards mass vaccination
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7967634/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33802501
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18052497
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