Study on the Spontaneous Combustion Tendency of Coal Based on Grey Relational and Multiple Regression Analysis

[Image: see text] The correlation between the spontaneous combustion tendency of coal and its properties are of great importance for safety issues, environmental concerns, and economic problems. In this study, the relationship between multiple parameters, different from the previous single parameter, and the spontaneous combustion tendency was analyzed. The comprehensive judgment index (CJI), which indicates the tendency of coal spontaneous combustion, was obtained for samples collected from different mines. The CJI was measured by the cross-point temperature and had a negative correlation with the spontaneous combustion tendency. Physical pore structures and chemical functional groups were characterized based on cryogenic nitrogen adsorption and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy measurements, respectively. For analyzing the effect of coal properties on the spontaneous combustion tendency, the grey relational grade was determined by the grey relational analysis between the CJI and the pore structures and functional groups of coal. The grey relational grade of the benzene substituent with CJI had a maximum of 0.8642, and the macropores had the minimum, 0.4169. The higher the gray relational grade was, the more relevant the spontaneous combustion tendency was, indicating that the benzene substituent was the most relevant. To better predict the spontaneous combustion tendency, the average pore diameter, hydroxyl, methyl, methylene, and benzene substituent with a high grey relational grade were selected. Finally, the multiple regression prediction model of CJI was established. The R squared coefficient, significance level, F-distribution, t-distribution, collinearity diagnosis, and residual distribution of the model met the requirements. In addition, two coal samples were selected to verify the spontaneous combustion tendency model. The relative errors between the predicted CJI value and the experimental CJI value were 1.42 and 4.25%, respectively. These small relative errors verified the reasonableness and validity of the prediction model.