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Close contact infection dynamics over time: insights from a second large-scale social contact survey in Flanders, Belgium, in 2010-2011

BACKGROUND: In 2010-2011, we conducted a social contact survey in Flanders, Belgium, aimed at improving and extending the design of the first social contact survey conducted in Belgium in 2006. This second social contact survey aimed to enable, for the first time, the estimation of social mixing pat...

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Autores principales: Hoang, Thang Van, Coletti, Pietro, Kifle, Yimer Wasihun, Kerckhove, Kim Van, Vercruysse, Sarah, Willem, Lander, Beutels, Philippe, Hens, Niel
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: BioMed Central 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7971398/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33736606
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12879-021-05949-4
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author Hoang, Thang Van
Coletti, Pietro
Kifle, Yimer Wasihun
Kerckhove, Kim Van
Vercruysse, Sarah
Willem, Lander
Beutels, Philippe
Hens, Niel
author_facet Hoang, Thang Van
Coletti, Pietro
Kifle, Yimer Wasihun
Kerckhove, Kim Van
Vercruysse, Sarah
Willem, Lander
Beutels, Philippe
Hens, Niel
author_sort Hoang, Thang Van
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: In 2010-2011, we conducted a social contact survey in Flanders, Belgium, aimed at improving and extending the design of the first social contact survey conducted in Belgium in 2006. This second social contact survey aimed to enable, for the first time, the estimation of social mixing patterns for an age range of 0 to 99 years and the investigation of whether contact rates remain stable over this 5-year time period. METHODS: Different data mining techniques are used to explore the data, and the age-specific number of social contacts and the age-specific contact rates are modelled using a generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) model. We compare different matrices using assortativeness measures. The relative change in the basic reproduction number (R(0)) and the ratio of relative incidences with 95% bootstrap confidence intervals (BCI) are employed to investigate and quantify the impact on epidemic spread due to differences in sex, day of the week, holiday vs. regular periods and changes in mixing patterns over the 5-year time gap between the 2006 and 2010-2011 surveys. Finally, we compare the fit of the contact matrices in 2006 and 2010-2011 to Varicella serological data. RESULTS: All estimated contact patterns featured strong homophily in age and sex, especially for small children and adolescents. A 30% (95% BCI [17%; 37%]) and 29% (95% BCI [14%; 40%]) reduction in R(0) was observed for weekend versus weekdays and for holiday versus regular periods, respectively. Significantly more interactions between people aged 60+ years and their grandchildren were observed on holiday and weekend days than on regular weekdays. Comparing contact patterns using different methods did not show any substantial differences over the 5-year time period under study. CONCLUSIONS: The second social contact survey in Flanders, Belgium, endorses the findings of its 2006 predecessor and adds important information on the social mixing patterns of people older than 60 years of age. Based on this analysis, the mixing patterns of people older than 60 years exhibit considerable heterogeneity, and overall, the comparison of the two surveys shows that social contact rates can be assumed stable in Flanders over a time span of 5 years. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at (10.1186/s12879-021-05949-4).
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spelling pubmed-79713982021-03-19 Close contact infection dynamics over time: insights from a second large-scale social contact survey in Flanders, Belgium, in 2010-2011 Hoang, Thang Van Coletti, Pietro Kifle, Yimer Wasihun Kerckhove, Kim Van Vercruysse, Sarah Willem, Lander Beutels, Philippe Hens, Niel BMC Infect Dis Research Article BACKGROUND: In 2010-2011, we conducted a social contact survey in Flanders, Belgium, aimed at improving and extending the design of the first social contact survey conducted in Belgium in 2006. This second social contact survey aimed to enable, for the first time, the estimation of social mixing patterns for an age range of 0 to 99 years and the investigation of whether contact rates remain stable over this 5-year time period. METHODS: Different data mining techniques are used to explore the data, and the age-specific number of social contacts and the age-specific contact rates are modelled using a generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) model. We compare different matrices using assortativeness measures. The relative change in the basic reproduction number (R(0)) and the ratio of relative incidences with 95% bootstrap confidence intervals (BCI) are employed to investigate and quantify the impact on epidemic spread due to differences in sex, day of the week, holiday vs. regular periods and changes in mixing patterns over the 5-year time gap between the 2006 and 2010-2011 surveys. Finally, we compare the fit of the contact matrices in 2006 and 2010-2011 to Varicella serological data. RESULTS: All estimated contact patterns featured strong homophily in age and sex, especially for small children and adolescents. A 30% (95% BCI [17%; 37%]) and 29% (95% BCI [14%; 40%]) reduction in R(0) was observed for weekend versus weekdays and for holiday versus regular periods, respectively. Significantly more interactions between people aged 60+ years and their grandchildren were observed on holiday and weekend days than on regular weekdays. Comparing contact patterns using different methods did not show any substantial differences over the 5-year time period under study. CONCLUSIONS: The second social contact survey in Flanders, Belgium, endorses the findings of its 2006 predecessor and adds important information on the social mixing patterns of people older than 60 years of age. Based on this analysis, the mixing patterns of people older than 60 years exhibit considerable heterogeneity, and overall, the comparison of the two surveys shows that social contact rates can be assumed stable in Flanders over a time span of 5 years. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at (10.1186/s12879-021-05949-4). BioMed Central 2021-03-18 /pmc/articles/PMC7971398/ /pubmed/33736606 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12879-021-05949-4 Text en © The Author(s) 2021 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.
spellingShingle Research Article
Hoang, Thang Van
Coletti, Pietro
Kifle, Yimer Wasihun
Kerckhove, Kim Van
Vercruysse, Sarah
Willem, Lander
Beutels, Philippe
Hens, Niel
Close contact infection dynamics over time: insights from a second large-scale social contact survey in Flanders, Belgium, in 2010-2011
title Close contact infection dynamics over time: insights from a second large-scale social contact survey in Flanders, Belgium, in 2010-2011
title_full Close contact infection dynamics over time: insights from a second large-scale social contact survey in Flanders, Belgium, in 2010-2011
title_fullStr Close contact infection dynamics over time: insights from a second large-scale social contact survey in Flanders, Belgium, in 2010-2011
title_full_unstemmed Close contact infection dynamics over time: insights from a second large-scale social contact survey in Flanders, Belgium, in 2010-2011
title_short Close contact infection dynamics over time: insights from a second large-scale social contact survey in Flanders, Belgium, in 2010-2011
title_sort close contact infection dynamics over time: insights from a second large-scale social contact survey in flanders, belgium, in 2010-2011
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7971398/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33736606
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12879-021-05949-4
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