CT-derived Chest Muscle Metrics for Outcome Prediction in Patients with COVID-19

BACKGROUND: Lower muscle mass is a known predictor of unfavorable outcome, but its prognostic impact on COVID-19 patients is unknown. PURPOSE: To investigate the contribution of CT-derived muscle status in predicting clinical outcomes in COVID-19 patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Clinical/laboratory data and outcomes (intensive care unit [ICU] admission and death) were retrospectively retrieved for patients with reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction-confirmed COVID-19, who underwent chest CT on admission in four hospitals in Northern Italy from February 21 to April 30, 2020. Extent and type of pulmonary involvement, mediastinal lymphadenopathy, and pleural effusion were assessed. Cross-sectional areas and attenuation of paravertebral muscles were measured on axial CT images at T5 and T12 vertebral level. Multivariable linear and binary logistic regression, including calculation odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), were used to build four models to predict ICU admission and death, tested and compared using receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis. RESULTS: A total 552 patients (364 men; median age 65 years, interquartile range 54–75) were included. In a CT-based model, lower-than-median T5 paravertebral muscle area showed the highest ORs for ICU admission (OR 4.8, 95% CI 2.7–8.5; P<.001) and death (OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.0–2.9; P=.027). When clinical variables were included in the model, lower-than-median T5 paravertebral muscle area still showed the highest ORs both for ICU admission (OR 4.3; 95% CI 2.5–7.7; P<.001) and death (OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.3–3.7; P=.001). At ROC analysis, the CT-based model and the model including clinical variables showed the same area under the curve (AUC) for ICU admission prediction (AUC 0.83, P=.380) and were not different in predicting death (AUC 0.86 versus AUC 0.87, respectively, P=.282). CONCLUSION: In hospitalized patients with COVID-19, lower muscle mass on CT was independently associated with ICU admission and hospital mortality.