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Analysis of the real number of infected people by COVID-19: A system dynamics approach
At the beginning of 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic was able to spread quickly in Wuhan and in the province of Hubei due to a lack of experience with this novel virus. Additionally, authories had no proven experience with applying insufficient medical, communication and crisis management tools. For a co...
Autores principales: | , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7971534/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33735225 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0245728 |
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author | Hu, Bo Dehmer, Matthias Emmert-Streib, Frank Zhang, Bo |
author_facet | Hu, Bo Dehmer, Matthias Emmert-Streib, Frank Zhang, Bo |
author_sort | Hu, Bo |
collection | PubMed |
description | At the beginning of 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic was able to spread quickly in Wuhan and in the province of Hubei due to a lack of experience with this novel virus. Additionally, authories had no proven experience with applying insufficient medical, communication and crisis management tools. For a considerable period of time, the actual number of people infected was unknown. There were great uncertainties regarding the dynamics and spread of the Covid-19 virus infection. In this paper, we develop a system dynamics model for the three connected regions (Wuhan, Hubei excl. Wuhan, China excl. Hubei) to understand the infection and spread dynamics of the virus and provide a more accurate estimate of the number of infected people in Wuhan and discuss the necessity and effectivity of protective measures against this epidemic, such as the quarantines imposed throughout China. We use the statistics of confirmed cases of China excl. Hubei. Also the daily data on travel activity within China was utilized, in order to determine the actual numerical development of the infected people in Wuhan City and Hubei Province. We used a multivariate Monte Carlo optimization to parameterize the model to match the official statistics. In particular, we used the model to calculate the infections, which had already broken out, but were not diagnosed for various reasons. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7971534 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-79715342021-03-31 Analysis of the real number of infected people by COVID-19: A system dynamics approach Hu, Bo Dehmer, Matthias Emmert-Streib, Frank Zhang, Bo PLoS One Research Article At the beginning of 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic was able to spread quickly in Wuhan and in the province of Hubei due to a lack of experience with this novel virus. Additionally, authories had no proven experience with applying insufficient medical, communication and crisis management tools. For a considerable period of time, the actual number of people infected was unknown. There were great uncertainties regarding the dynamics and spread of the Covid-19 virus infection. In this paper, we develop a system dynamics model for the three connected regions (Wuhan, Hubei excl. Wuhan, China excl. Hubei) to understand the infection and spread dynamics of the virus and provide a more accurate estimate of the number of infected people in Wuhan and discuss the necessity and effectivity of protective measures against this epidemic, such as the quarantines imposed throughout China. We use the statistics of confirmed cases of China excl. Hubei. Also the daily data on travel activity within China was utilized, in order to determine the actual numerical development of the infected people in Wuhan City and Hubei Province. We used a multivariate Monte Carlo optimization to parameterize the model to match the official statistics. In particular, we used the model to calculate the infections, which had already broken out, but were not diagnosed for various reasons. Public Library of Science 2021-03-18 /pmc/articles/PMC7971534/ /pubmed/33735225 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0245728 Text en © 2021 Hu et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Hu, Bo Dehmer, Matthias Emmert-Streib, Frank Zhang, Bo Analysis of the real number of infected people by COVID-19: A system dynamics approach |
title | Analysis of the real number of infected people by COVID-19: A system dynamics approach |
title_full | Analysis of the real number of infected people by COVID-19: A system dynamics approach |
title_fullStr | Analysis of the real number of infected people by COVID-19: A system dynamics approach |
title_full_unstemmed | Analysis of the real number of infected people by COVID-19: A system dynamics approach |
title_short | Analysis of the real number of infected people by COVID-19: A system dynamics approach |
title_sort | analysis of the real number of infected people by covid-19: a system dynamics approach |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7971534/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33735225 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0245728 |
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