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Impact of recent climate extremes on mosquito-borne disease transmission in Kenya

Climate change and variability influence temperature and rainfall, which impact vector abundance and the dynamics of vector-borne disease transmission. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events. Mosquito-borne diseases, such as dengue fever, are pr...

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Autores principales: Nosrat, Cameron, Altamirano, Jonathan, Anyamba, Assaf, Caldwell, Jamie M., Damoah, Richard, Mutuku, Francis, Ndenga, Bryson, LaBeaud, A. Desiree
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7971569/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33735293
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009182
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author Nosrat, Cameron
Altamirano, Jonathan
Anyamba, Assaf
Caldwell, Jamie M.
Damoah, Richard
Mutuku, Francis
Ndenga, Bryson
LaBeaud, A. Desiree
author_facet Nosrat, Cameron
Altamirano, Jonathan
Anyamba, Assaf
Caldwell, Jamie M.
Damoah, Richard
Mutuku, Francis
Ndenga, Bryson
LaBeaud, A. Desiree
author_sort Nosrat, Cameron
collection PubMed
description Climate change and variability influence temperature and rainfall, which impact vector abundance and the dynamics of vector-borne disease transmission. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events. Mosquito-borne diseases, such as dengue fever, are primarily transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. Freshwater availability and temperature affect dengue vector populations via a variety of biological processes and thus influence the ability of mosquitoes to effectively transmit disease. However, the effect of droughts, floods, heat waves, and cold waves is not well understood. Using vector, climate, and dengue disease data collected between 2013 and 2019 in Kenya, this retrospective cohort study aims to elucidate the impact of extreme rainfall and temperature on mosquito abundance and the risk of arboviral infections. To define extreme periods of rainfall and land surface temperature (LST), we calculated monthly anomalies as deviations from long-term means (1983–2019 for rainfall, 2000–2019 for LST) across four study locations in Kenya. We classified extreme climate events as the upper and lower 10% of these calculated LST or rainfall deviations. Monthly Ae. aegypti abundance was recorded in Kenya using four trapping methods. Blood samples were also collected from children with febrile illness presenting to four field sites and tested for dengue virus using an IgG enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and polymerase chain reaction (PCR). We found that mosquito eggs and adults were significantly more abundant one month following an abnormally wet month. The relationship between mosquito abundance and dengue risk follows a non-linear association. Our findings suggest that early warnings and targeted interventions during periods of abnormal rainfall and temperature, especially flooding, can potentially contribute to reductions in risk of viral transmission.
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spelling pubmed-79715692021-03-31 Impact of recent climate extremes on mosquito-borne disease transmission in Kenya Nosrat, Cameron Altamirano, Jonathan Anyamba, Assaf Caldwell, Jamie M. Damoah, Richard Mutuku, Francis Ndenga, Bryson LaBeaud, A. Desiree PLoS Negl Trop Dis Research Article Climate change and variability influence temperature and rainfall, which impact vector abundance and the dynamics of vector-borne disease transmission. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events. Mosquito-borne diseases, such as dengue fever, are primarily transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. Freshwater availability and temperature affect dengue vector populations via a variety of biological processes and thus influence the ability of mosquitoes to effectively transmit disease. However, the effect of droughts, floods, heat waves, and cold waves is not well understood. Using vector, climate, and dengue disease data collected between 2013 and 2019 in Kenya, this retrospective cohort study aims to elucidate the impact of extreme rainfall and temperature on mosquito abundance and the risk of arboviral infections. To define extreme periods of rainfall and land surface temperature (LST), we calculated monthly anomalies as deviations from long-term means (1983–2019 for rainfall, 2000–2019 for LST) across four study locations in Kenya. We classified extreme climate events as the upper and lower 10% of these calculated LST or rainfall deviations. Monthly Ae. aegypti abundance was recorded in Kenya using four trapping methods. Blood samples were also collected from children with febrile illness presenting to four field sites and tested for dengue virus using an IgG enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and polymerase chain reaction (PCR). We found that mosquito eggs and adults were significantly more abundant one month following an abnormally wet month. The relationship between mosquito abundance and dengue risk follows a non-linear association. Our findings suggest that early warnings and targeted interventions during periods of abnormal rainfall and temperature, especially flooding, can potentially contribute to reductions in risk of viral transmission. Public Library of Science 2021-03-18 /pmc/articles/PMC7971569/ /pubmed/33735293 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009182 Text en © 2021 Nosrat et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Nosrat, Cameron
Altamirano, Jonathan
Anyamba, Assaf
Caldwell, Jamie M.
Damoah, Richard
Mutuku, Francis
Ndenga, Bryson
LaBeaud, A. Desiree
Impact of recent climate extremes on mosquito-borne disease transmission in Kenya
title Impact of recent climate extremes on mosquito-borne disease transmission in Kenya
title_full Impact of recent climate extremes on mosquito-borne disease transmission in Kenya
title_fullStr Impact of recent climate extremes on mosquito-borne disease transmission in Kenya
title_full_unstemmed Impact of recent climate extremes on mosquito-borne disease transmission in Kenya
title_short Impact of recent climate extremes on mosquito-borne disease transmission in Kenya
title_sort impact of recent climate extremes on mosquito-borne disease transmission in kenya
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7971569/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33735293
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009182
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