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Fluid dynamics and epidemiology: Seasonality and transmission dynamics

Epidemic models do not account for the effects of climate conditions on the transmission dynamics of viruses. This study presents the vital relationship between weather seasonality, airborne virus transmission, and pandemic outbreaks over a whole year. Using the data obtained from high-fidelity mult...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Dbouk, Talib, Drikakis, Dimitris
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: AIP Publishing LLC 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7976049/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33746486
http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/5.0037640
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author Dbouk, Talib
Drikakis, Dimitris
author_facet Dbouk, Talib
Drikakis, Dimitris
author_sort Dbouk, Talib
collection PubMed
description Epidemic models do not account for the effects of climate conditions on the transmission dynamics of viruses. This study presents the vital relationship between weather seasonality, airborne virus transmission, and pandemic outbreaks over a whole year. Using the data obtained from high-fidelity multi-phase, fluid dynamics simulations, we calculate the concentration rate of Coronavirus particles in contaminated saliva droplets and use it to derive a new Airborne Infection Rate (AIR) index. Combining the simplest form of an epidemiological model, the susceptible–infected–recovered, and the AIR index, we show through data evidence how weather seasonality induces two outbreaks per year, as it is observed with the COVID-19 pandemic worldwide. We present the results for the number of cases and transmission rates for three cities, New York, Paris, and Rio de Janeiro. The results suggest that two pandemic outbreaks per year are inevitable because they are directly linked to what we call weather seasonality. The pandemic outbreaks are associated with changes in temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed independently of the particular season. We propose that epidemiological models must incorporate climate effects through the AIR index.
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spelling pubmed-79760492021-03-19 Fluid dynamics and epidemiology: Seasonality and transmission dynamics Dbouk, Talib Drikakis, Dimitris Phys Fluids (1994) ARTICLES Epidemic models do not account for the effects of climate conditions on the transmission dynamics of viruses. This study presents the vital relationship between weather seasonality, airborne virus transmission, and pandemic outbreaks over a whole year. Using the data obtained from high-fidelity multi-phase, fluid dynamics simulations, we calculate the concentration rate of Coronavirus particles in contaminated saliva droplets and use it to derive a new Airborne Infection Rate (AIR) index. Combining the simplest form of an epidemiological model, the susceptible–infected–recovered, and the AIR index, we show through data evidence how weather seasonality induces two outbreaks per year, as it is observed with the COVID-19 pandemic worldwide. We present the results for the number of cases and transmission rates for three cities, New York, Paris, and Rio de Janeiro. The results suggest that two pandemic outbreaks per year are inevitable because they are directly linked to what we call weather seasonality. The pandemic outbreaks are associated with changes in temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed independently of the particular season. We propose that epidemiological models must incorporate climate effects through the AIR index. AIP Publishing LLC 2021-02-01 2021-02-02 /pmc/articles/PMC7976049/ /pubmed/33746486 http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/5.0037640 Text en © 2021 Author(s) Published under license by AIP Publishing. 1070-6631/2021/33(2)/021901/9/$30.00 All article content, except where otherwise noted, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle ARTICLES
Dbouk, Talib
Drikakis, Dimitris
Fluid dynamics and epidemiology: Seasonality and transmission dynamics
title Fluid dynamics and epidemiology: Seasonality and transmission dynamics
title_full Fluid dynamics and epidemiology: Seasonality and transmission dynamics
title_fullStr Fluid dynamics and epidemiology: Seasonality and transmission dynamics
title_full_unstemmed Fluid dynamics and epidemiology: Seasonality and transmission dynamics
title_short Fluid dynamics and epidemiology: Seasonality and transmission dynamics
title_sort fluid dynamics and epidemiology: seasonality and transmission dynamics
topic ARTICLES
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7976049/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33746486
http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/5.0037640
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