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Probability of COVID-19 infection by cough of a normal person and a super-spreader

In this work, we estimate the probability of an infected person infecting another person in the vicinity by coughing in the context of COVID-19. The analysis relies on the experimental data of Simha and Rao [“Universal trends in human cough airflows at large distances,” Phys. Fluids 32, 081905 (2020...

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Autores principales: Agrawal, Amit, Bhardwaj, Rajneesh
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: AIP Publishing LLC 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7976050/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33746492
http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/5.0041596
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author Agrawal, Amit
Bhardwaj, Rajneesh
author_facet Agrawal, Amit
Bhardwaj, Rajneesh
author_sort Agrawal, Amit
collection PubMed
description In this work, we estimate the probability of an infected person infecting another person in the vicinity by coughing in the context of COVID-19. The analysis relies on the experimental data of Simha and Rao [“Universal trends in human cough airflows at large distances,” Phys. Fluids 32, 081905 (2020)] and similarity analysis of Agrawal and Bhardwaj [“Reducing chances of COVID-19 infection by a cough cloud in a closed space,” Phys. Fluids 32, 101704 (2020)] to determine the variation of the concentration of infected aerosols with some distance from the source. The analysis reveals a large probability of infection within the volume of the cough cloud and a rapid exponential decay beyond it. The benefit of using a mask is clearly brought out through a reduction in the probability of infection. The increase in the probability of transmission by a super-spreader is also quantified for the first time. At a distance of 1 m, the probability of infection from a super-spreader is found to be 185% larger than a normal person. Our results support the current recommendation of maintaining a 2 m distance between two people. The analysis is enough to be applied to the transmission of other diseases by coughing, while the probability of transmission of COVID-19 due to other respiratory events can be obtained using our proposed approach.
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spelling pubmed-79760502021-03-19 Probability of COVID-19 infection by cough of a normal person and a super-spreader Agrawal, Amit Bhardwaj, Rajneesh Phys Fluids (1994) Letters In this work, we estimate the probability of an infected person infecting another person in the vicinity by coughing in the context of COVID-19. The analysis relies on the experimental data of Simha and Rao [“Universal trends in human cough airflows at large distances,” Phys. Fluids 32, 081905 (2020)] and similarity analysis of Agrawal and Bhardwaj [“Reducing chances of COVID-19 infection by a cough cloud in a closed space,” Phys. Fluids 32, 101704 (2020)] to determine the variation of the concentration of infected aerosols with some distance from the source. The analysis reveals a large probability of infection within the volume of the cough cloud and a rapid exponential decay beyond it. The benefit of using a mask is clearly brought out through a reduction in the probability of infection. The increase in the probability of transmission by a super-spreader is also quantified for the first time. At a distance of 1 m, the probability of infection from a super-spreader is found to be 185% larger than a normal person. Our results support the current recommendation of maintaining a 2 m distance between two people. The analysis is enough to be applied to the transmission of other diseases by coughing, while the probability of transmission of COVID-19 due to other respiratory events can be obtained using our proposed approach. AIP Publishing LLC 2021-03-01 2021-03-05 /pmc/articles/PMC7976050/ /pubmed/33746492 http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/5.0041596 Text en © 2021 Author(s) Published under license by AIP Publishing. 1070-6631/2021/33(3)/031704/7/$30.00 All article content, except where otherwise noted, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Letters
Agrawal, Amit
Bhardwaj, Rajneesh
Probability of COVID-19 infection by cough of a normal person and a super-spreader
title Probability of COVID-19 infection by cough of a normal person and a super-spreader
title_full Probability of COVID-19 infection by cough of a normal person and a super-spreader
title_fullStr Probability of COVID-19 infection by cough of a normal person and a super-spreader
title_full_unstemmed Probability of COVID-19 infection by cough of a normal person and a super-spreader
title_short Probability of COVID-19 infection by cough of a normal person and a super-spreader
title_sort probability of covid-19 infection by cough of a normal person and a super-spreader
topic Letters
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7976050/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33746492
http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/5.0041596
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