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Modelling the impact of contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic

OBJECTIVES: With the declining numbers of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, social distancing measures have gradually been lifted. However, the risk of a surge in the number of cases cannot be overlooked. Even with the adoption of nonpharmaceutical interven...

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Autores principales: Amaku, Marcos, Covas, Dimas Tadeu, Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra, Azevedo, Raymundo Soares, Massad, Eduardo
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Faculdade de Medicina / USP 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7978843/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33787657
http://dx.doi.org/10.6061/clinics/2021/e2639
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author Amaku, Marcos
Covas, Dimas Tadeu
Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra
Azevedo, Raymundo Soares
Massad, Eduardo
author_facet Amaku, Marcos
Covas, Dimas Tadeu
Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra
Azevedo, Raymundo Soares
Massad, Eduardo
author_sort Amaku, Marcos
collection PubMed
description OBJECTIVES: With the declining numbers of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, social distancing measures have gradually been lifted. However, the risk of a surge in the number of cases cannot be overlooked. Even with the adoption of nonpharmaceutical interventions, such as restrictions on mass gatherings, wearing of masks, and complete or partial closure of schools, other public health measures may help control the epidemic. We aimed to evaluate the impact of the contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic regardless of the use of diagnostic testing. METHODS: We developed a mathematical model that includes isolation of symptomatic individuals and tracing of contacts to assess the effects of the contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic in the state of São Paulo. RESULTS: For a selection efficacy (proportion of isolated contacts who are infected) of 80%, cases and deaths may be reduced by 80% after 60 days when 5000 symptomatic individuals are isolated per day, each of them together with 10 contacts. On the other hand, for a selection efficacy of 20%, the number of cases and deaths may be reduced by approximately 40% and 50%, respectively, compared with the scenario in which no contact-tracing strategy is implemented. CONCLUSION: Contact tracing of symptomatic individuals may potentially be an alternative strategy when the number of diagnostic tests available is not sufficient for massive testing.
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spelling pubmed-79788432021-03-21 Modelling the impact of contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic Amaku, Marcos Covas, Dimas Tadeu Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra Azevedo, Raymundo Soares Massad, Eduardo Clinics (Sao Paulo) Original Article OBJECTIVES: With the declining numbers of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, social distancing measures have gradually been lifted. However, the risk of a surge in the number of cases cannot be overlooked. Even with the adoption of nonpharmaceutical interventions, such as restrictions on mass gatherings, wearing of masks, and complete or partial closure of schools, other public health measures may help control the epidemic. We aimed to evaluate the impact of the contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic regardless of the use of diagnostic testing. METHODS: We developed a mathematical model that includes isolation of symptomatic individuals and tracing of contacts to assess the effects of the contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic in the state of São Paulo. RESULTS: For a selection efficacy (proportion of isolated contacts who are infected) of 80%, cases and deaths may be reduced by 80% after 60 days when 5000 symptomatic individuals are isolated per day, each of them together with 10 contacts. On the other hand, for a selection efficacy of 20%, the number of cases and deaths may be reduced by approximately 40% and 50%, respectively, compared with the scenario in which no contact-tracing strategy is implemented. CONCLUSION: Contact tracing of symptomatic individuals may potentially be an alternative strategy when the number of diagnostic tests available is not sufficient for massive testing. Faculdade de Medicina / USP 2021-03-19 2021 /pmc/articles/PMC7978843/ /pubmed/33787657 http://dx.doi.org/10.6061/clinics/2021/e2639 Text en Copyright © 2021 CLINICS http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Original Article
Amaku, Marcos
Covas, Dimas Tadeu
Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra
Azevedo, Raymundo Soares
Massad, Eduardo
Modelling the impact of contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic
title Modelling the impact of contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic
title_full Modelling the impact of contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic
title_fullStr Modelling the impact of contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic
title_full_unstemmed Modelling the impact of contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic
title_short Modelling the impact of contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic
title_sort modelling the impact of contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the covid-19 epidemic
topic Original Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7978843/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33787657
http://dx.doi.org/10.6061/clinics/2021/e2639
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