Identification and Validation of a Prognostic Model Based on Three Autophagy-Related Genes in Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUND: Accumulating studies have demonstrated that autophagy plays an important role in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We aimed to construct a prognostic model based on autophagy-related genes (ARGs) to predict the survival of HCC patients. METHODS: Differentially expressed ARGs were identified based on the expression data from The Cancer Genome Atlas and ARGs of the Human Autophagy Database. Univariate Cox regression analysis was used to identify the prognosis-related ARGs. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed to construct the prognostic model. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC), Kaplan-Meier curve, and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to test the prognostic value of the model. The prognostic value of the model was further confirmed by an independent data cohort obtained from the International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC) database. RESULTS: A total of 34 prognosis-related ARGs were selected from 62 differentially expressed ARGs identified in HCC compared with noncancer tissues. After analysis, a novel prognostic model based on ARGs (PRKCD, BIRC5, and ATIC) was constructed. The risk score divided patients into high- or low-risk groups, which had significantly different survival rates. Multivariate Cox analysis indicated that the risk score was an independent risk factor for survival of HCC after adjusting for other conventional clinical parameters. ROC analysis showed that the predictive value of this model was better than that of other conventional clinical parameters. Moreover, the prognostic value of the model was further confirmed in an independent cohort from ICGC patients. CONCLUSION: The prognosis-related ARGs could provide new perspectives on HCC, and the model should be helpful for predicting the prognosis of HCC patients.