Predicting in-hospital mortality for sepsis: a comparison between qSOFA and modified qSOFA in a 2-year single-centre retrospective analysis

Sepsis is a life-threating organ dysfunction caused by a dysregulated host response to infection. This study proposed a new tool, i.e. modified qSOFA, for the early prognostic assessment of septic patients. All cases of sepsis/septic shock consecutively observed in 2 years (January 2017–December 2018), at St. Anna University Hospital of Ferrara, Italy, were included. Each patient was evaluated with qSOFA and a modified qSOFA (MqSOFA), i.e. adding a SpO2/FiO2 ratio to qSOFA. Logistic regression and survival analyses were applied to compare the two scores. A total number of 1137 consecutive cases of sepsis and septic shock were considered. Among them 136 were excluded for incomplete report of vital parameters. A total number of 668 patients (66.7%) were discharged, whereas 333 (33.3%) died because of sepsis-related complications. Data analysis showed that MqSOFA (AUC 0.805, 95% C.I. 0.776–0.833) had a greater ability to detect in-hospital mortality than qSOFA (AUC 0.712, 95% C.I. 0.678–0.746) (p < 0.001). Eighty-five patients (8.5%) were reclassified as high-risk (qSOFA< 2 and MqSOFA≥ 2) resulting in an improvement of sensitivity with a minor reduction in specificity. A significant difference of in-hospital mortality was observed between low-risk and reclassified high-risk (p < 0.001) and low-risk vs. high-risk groups (p < 0.001). We demonstrated that MqSOFA provided a better predictive score than qSOFA regarding patient’s outcome. Since sepsis is an underhanded and time-dependent disease, physicians may rely upon the herein proposed simple score, i.e. MqSOFA, to establish patients’ severity and outcome. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10096-020-04086-1.