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Role of fluctuations in epidemic resurgence after a lockdown
Most popular statistical models in epidemic evolution focus on the dynamics of average relevant quantities and overlooks the role of small fluctuations on the model parameters. Models for Covid-19 are no exception. In this paper we show that the role of time-correlated fluctuations, far from being n...
Autores principales: | , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7979713/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33742018 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-85808-z |
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author | Neri, I. Gammaitoni, L. |
author_facet | Neri, I. Gammaitoni, L. |
author_sort | Neri, I. |
collection | PubMed |
description | Most popular statistical models in epidemic evolution focus on the dynamics of average relevant quantities and overlooks the role of small fluctuations on the model parameters. Models for Covid-19 are no exception. In this paper we show that the role of time-correlated fluctuations, far from being negligible, can in fact determine the spreading of an epidemic and, most importantly, the resurgence of the exponential diffusion in the presence of time-limited episodes in promiscuity behaviours. The results found in this work are not only relevant and specific for the Covid-19 epidemic but are more general and can be applied to other epidemics. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7979713 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-79797132021-03-25 Role of fluctuations in epidemic resurgence after a lockdown Neri, I. Gammaitoni, L. Sci Rep Article Most popular statistical models in epidemic evolution focus on the dynamics of average relevant quantities and overlooks the role of small fluctuations on the model parameters. Models for Covid-19 are no exception. In this paper we show that the role of time-correlated fluctuations, far from being negligible, can in fact determine the spreading of an epidemic and, most importantly, the resurgence of the exponential diffusion in the presence of time-limited episodes in promiscuity behaviours. The results found in this work are not only relevant and specific for the Covid-19 epidemic but are more general and can be applied to other epidemics. Nature Publishing Group UK 2021-03-19 /pmc/articles/PMC7979713/ /pubmed/33742018 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-85808-z Text en © The Author(s) 2021 Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
spellingShingle | Article Neri, I. Gammaitoni, L. Role of fluctuations in epidemic resurgence after a lockdown |
title | Role of fluctuations in epidemic resurgence after a lockdown |
title_full | Role of fluctuations in epidemic resurgence after a lockdown |
title_fullStr | Role of fluctuations in epidemic resurgence after a lockdown |
title_full_unstemmed | Role of fluctuations in epidemic resurgence after a lockdown |
title_short | Role of fluctuations in epidemic resurgence after a lockdown |
title_sort | role of fluctuations in epidemic resurgence after a lockdown |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7979713/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33742018 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-85808-z |
work_keys_str_mv | AT nerii roleoffluctuationsinepidemicresurgenceafteralockdown AT gammaitonil roleoffluctuationsinepidemicresurgenceafteralockdown |