Role of fluctuations in epidemic resurgence after a lockdown

Most popular statistical models in epidemic evolution focus on the dynamics of average relevant quantities and overlooks the role of small fluctuations on the model parameters. Models for Covid-19 are no exception. In this paper we show that the role of time-correlated fluctuations, far from being n...

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Autores principales: Neri, I., Gammaitoni, L.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2021
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7979713/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33742018
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-85808-z
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author Neri, I.
Gammaitoni, L.
author_facet Neri, I.
Gammaitoni, L.
author_sort Neri, I.
collection PubMed
description Most popular statistical models in epidemic evolution focus on the dynamics of average relevant quantities and overlooks the role of small fluctuations on the model parameters. Models for Covid-19 are no exception. In this paper we show that the role of time-correlated fluctuations, far from being negligible, can in fact determine the spreading of an epidemic and, most importantly, the resurgence of the exponential diffusion in the presence of time-limited episodes in promiscuity behaviours. The results found in this work are not only relevant and specific for the Covid-19 epidemic but are more general and can be applied to other epidemics.
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spelling pubmed-79797132021-03-25 Role of fluctuations in epidemic resurgence after a lockdown Neri, I. Gammaitoni, L. Sci Rep Article Most popular statistical models in epidemic evolution focus on the dynamics of average relevant quantities and overlooks the role of small fluctuations on the model parameters. Models for Covid-19 are no exception. In this paper we show that the role of time-correlated fluctuations, far from being negligible, can in fact determine the spreading of an epidemic and, most importantly, the resurgence of the exponential diffusion in the presence of time-limited episodes in promiscuity behaviours. The results found in this work are not only relevant and specific for the Covid-19 epidemic but are more general and can be applied to other epidemics. Nature Publishing Group UK 2021-03-19 /pmc/articles/PMC7979713/ /pubmed/33742018 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-85808-z Text en © The Author(s) 2021 Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
spellingShingle Article
Neri, I.
Gammaitoni, L.
Role of fluctuations in epidemic resurgence after a lockdown
title Role of fluctuations in epidemic resurgence after a lockdown
title_full Role of fluctuations in epidemic resurgence after a lockdown
title_fullStr Role of fluctuations in epidemic resurgence after a lockdown
title_full_unstemmed Role of fluctuations in epidemic resurgence after a lockdown
title_short Role of fluctuations in epidemic resurgence after a lockdown
title_sort role of fluctuations in epidemic resurgence after a lockdown
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7979713/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33742018
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-85808-z
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