Using past epidemics to estimate the macroeconomic implications of COVID-19: A bad idea!

This work is intended to show that past epidemic scenarios are not suitable to estimate the macroeconomic impact of the new 2019 coronavirus. Using five centuries of macroeconomic data for England and a unique dataset on epidemics and other significant events (i.e., wars and natural disasters), we s...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Donadelli, Michael, Ferranna, Licia, Gufler, Ivan, Paradiso, Antonio
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier B.V. 2021
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7980493/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35317217
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2021.03.002
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author Donadelli, Michael
Ferranna, Licia
Gufler, Ivan
Paradiso, Antonio
author_facet Donadelli, Michael
Ferranna, Licia
Gufler, Ivan
Paradiso, Antonio
author_sort Donadelli, Michael
collection PubMed
description This work is intended to show that past epidemic scenarios are not suitable to estimate the macroeconomic impact of the new 2019 coronavirus. Using five centuries of macroeconomic data for England and a unique dataset on epidemics and other significant events (i.e., wars and natural disasters), we show that the macroeconomic effect of epidemics reflects the socio-economic features characterizing different eras. A mapping between past epidemic scenarios and the COVID-19-induced environment can thus lead to misleading outcomes. We believe our evidence to be of general interest and key for policymakers forced to implement rapid and effective policies.
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spelling pubmed-79804932021-03-23 Using past epidemics to estimate the macroeconomic implications of COVID-19: A bad idea! Donadelli, Michael Ferranna, Licia Gufler, Ivan Paradiso, Antonio Struct Chang Econ Dyn Article This work is intended to show that past epidemic scenarios are not suitable to estimate the macroeconomic impact of the new 2019 coronavirus. Using five centuries of macroeconomic data for England and a unique dataset on epidemics and other significant events (i.e., wars and natural disasters), we show that the macroeconomic effect of epidemics reflects the socio-economic features characterizing different eras. A mapping between past epidemic scenarios and the COVID-19-induced environment can thus lead to misleading outcomes. We believe our evidence to be of general interest and key for policymakers forced to implement rapid and effective policies. Elsevier B.V. 2021-06 2021-03-20 /pmc/articles/PMC7980493/ /pubmed/35317217 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2021.03.002 Text en © 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Donadelli, Michael
Ferranna, Licia
Gufler, Ivan
Paradiso, Antonio
Using past epidemics to estimate the macroeconomic implications of COVID-19: A bad idea!
title Using past epidemics to estimate the macroeconomic implications of COVID-19: A bad idea!
title_full Using past epidemics to estimate the macroeconomic implications of COVID-19: A bad idea!
title_fullStr Using past epidemics to estimate the macroeconomic implications of COVID-19: A bad idea!
title_full_unstemmed Using past epidemics to estimate the macroeconomic implications of COVID-19: A bad idea!
title_short Using past epidemics to estimate the macroeconomic implications of COVID-19: A bad idea!
title_sort using past epidemics to estimate the macroeconomic implications of covid-19: a bad idea!
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7980493/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35317217
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2021.03.002
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