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COVID-19 risk assessment at the opening ceremony of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games
The 2020 Olympic/Paralympic Games have been postponed to 2021, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We developed a model that integrated source–environment–receptor pathways to evaluate how preventive efforts can reduce the infection risk among spectators at the opening ceremony of Tokyo Olympic Games. We...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V.
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7981581/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33778137 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.mran.2021.100162 |
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author | Murakami, Michio Miura, Fuminari Kitajima, Masaaki Fujii, Kenkichi Yasutaka, Tetsuo Iwasaki, Yuichi Ono, Kyoko Shimazu, Yuzo Sorano, Sumire Okuda, Tomoaki Ozaki, Akihiko Katayama, Kotoe Nishikawa, Yoshitaka Kobashi, Yurie Sawano, Toyoaki Abe, Toshiki Saito, Masaya M. Tsubokura, Masaharu Naito, Wataru Imoto, Seiya |
author_facet | Murakami, Michio Miura, Fuminari Kitajima, Masaaki Fujii, Kenkichi Yasutaka, Tetsuo Iwasaki, Yuichi Ono, Kyoko Shimazu, Yuzo Sorano, Sumire Okuda, Tomoaki Ozaki, Akihiko Katayama, Kotoe Nishikawa, Yoshitaka Kobashi, Yurie Sawano, Toyoaki Abe, Toshiki Saito, Masaya M. Tsubokura, Masaharu Naito, Wataru Imoto, Seiya |
author_sort | Murakami, Michio |
collection | PubMed |
description | The 2020 Olympic/Paralympic Games have been postponed to 2021, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We developed a model that integrated source–environment–receptor pathways to evaluate how preventive efforts can reduce the infection risk among spectators at the opening ceremony of Tokyo Olympic Games. We simulated viral loads of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emitted from infectors through talking/coughing/sneezing and modeled temporal environmental behaviors, including virus inactivation and transfer. We performed Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the expected number of newly infected individuals with and without preventive measures, yielding the crude probability of a spectator being an infector among the 60,000 people expected to attend the opening ceremony. Two indicators, i.e., the expected number of newly infected individuals and the newly infected individuals per infector entry, were proposed to demonstrate the extent of achievable infection risk reduction levels by implementing possible preventive measures. A no-prevention scenario produced 1.5–1.7 newly infected individuals per infector entry, whereas a combination of cooperative preventive measures by organizers and the spectators achieved a 99% risk reduction, corresponding to 0.009–0.012 newly infected individuals per infector entry. The expected number of newly infected individuals was calculated as 0.005 for the combination of cooperative preventive scenarios with the crude probability of a spectator being an infector of 1 × 10(−5). Based on our estimates, a combination of cooperative preventions between organizers and spectators is required to prevent a viral spread at the Tokyo Olympic/Paralympic Games. Further, under the assumption that society accepts < 10 newly infected persons traced to events held during the entire Olympic/Paralympic Games, we propose a crude probability of infectors of < 5 × 10(−5) as a benchmark for the suppression of the infection. This is the first study to develop a model that can assess the infection risk among spectators due to exposure pathways at a mass gathering event. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7981581 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-79815812021-03-23 COVID-19 risk assessment at the opening ceremony of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games Murakami, Michio Miura, Fuminari Kitajima, Masaaki Fujii, Kenkichi Yasutaka, Tetsuo Iwasaki, Yuichi Ono, Kyoko Shimazu, Yuzo Sorano, Sumire Okuda, Tomoaki Ozaki, Akihiko Katayama, Kotoe Nishikawa, Yoshitaka Kobashi, Yurie Sawano, Toyoaki Abe, Toshiki Saito, Masaya M. Tsubokura, Masaharu Naito, Wataru Imoto, Seiya Microb Risk Anal Research Paper The 2020 Olympic/Paralympic Games have been postponed to 2021, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We developed a model that integrated source–environment–receptor pathways to evaluate how preventive efforts can reduce the infection risk among spectators at the opening ceremony of Tokyo Olympic Games. We simulated viral loads of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emitted from infectors through talking/coughing/sneezing and modeled temporal environmental behaviors, including virus inactivation and transfer. We performed Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the expected number of newly infected individuals with and without preventive measures, yielding the crude probability of a spectator being an infector among the 60,000 people expected to attend the opening ceremony. Two indicators, i.e., the expected number of newly infected individuals and the newly infected individuals per infector entry, were proposed to demonstrate the extent of achievable infection risk reduction levels by implementing possible preventive measures. A no-prevention scenario produced 1.5–1.7 newly infected individuals per infector entry, whereas a combination of cooperative preventive measures by organizers and the spectators achieved a 99% risk reduction, corresponding to 0.009–0.012 newly infected individuals per infector entry. The expected number of newly infected individuals was calculated as 0.005 for the combination of cooperative preventive scenarios with the crude probability of a spectator being an infector of 1 × 10(−5). Based on our estimates, a combination of cooperative preventions between organizers and spectators is required to prevent a viral spread at the Tokyo Olympic/Paralympic Games. Further, under the assumption that society accepts < 10 newly infected persons traced to events held during the entire Olympic/Paralympic Games, we propose a crude probability of infectors of < 5 × 10(−5) as a benchmark for the suppression of the infection. This is the first study to develop a model that can assess the infection risk among spectators due to exposure pathways at a mass gathering event. The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. 2021-12 2021-03-21 /pmc/articles/PMC7981581/ /pubmed/33778137 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.mran.2021.100162 Text en © 2021 The Author(s) Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active. |
spellingShingle | Research Paper Murakami, Michio Miura, Fuminari Kitajima, Masaaki Fujii, Kenkichi Yasutaka, Tetsuo Iwasaki, Yuichi Ono, Kyoko Shimazu, Yuzo Sorano, Sumire Okuda, Tomoaki Ozaki, Akihiko Katayama, Kotoe Nishikawa, Yoshitaka Kobashi, Yurie Sawano, Toyoaki Abe, Toshiki Saito, Masaya M. Tsubokura, Masaharu Naito, Wataru Imoto, Seiya COVID-19 risk assessment at the opening ceremony of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games |
title | COVID-19 risk assessment at the opening ceremony of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games |
title_full | COVID-19 risk assessment at the opening ceremony of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games |
title_fullStr | COVID-19 risk assessment at the opening ceremony of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games |
title_full_unstemmed | COVID-19 risk assessment at the opening ceremony of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games |
title_short | COVID-19 risk assessment at the opening ceremony of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games |
title_sort | covid-19 risk assessment at the opening ceremony of the tokyo 2020 olympic games |
topic | Research Paper |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7981581/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33778137 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.mran.2021.100162 |
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