Predicting the development of gender-specific premature mortality for Germany by 2030

Germany has set itself the goal of reducing the premature mortality of under 70-year-old men to 190/100,000 and of women to 100/100,000 (age-standardized) by 2030. This is in line with the targets of the United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) (2015–2030) to reduce premature mortality by 34% for both men and women during this period. For the years 2010 to 2018, the premature mortality of 0–69-year-old men and women was calculated and standardized to the European population. On this basis, two linear trend calculations were made and compared with each other: 1. with the data of the target for Germany up to the year 2030, and 2. with the real figures achieved so far. The goal of reducing premature mortality by 34% within 15 years can, according to the current trend, only be achieved to 13.5% for men and 5.2% for women. Conclusions will be drawn from this as to how premature mortality can be reduced more significantly.