A model to predict the risk of mortality in severely ill COVID-19 patients

BACKGROUND: To investigate and select the useful prognostic parameters to develop and validate a model to predict the mortality risk for severely and critically ill patients with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). METHODS: We established a retrospective cohort of patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 (≥18 years old) from two tertiary hospitals: the People’s Hospital of Wuhan University and Leishenshan Hospital between February 16, 2020, and April 14, 2020. The diagnosis of the cases was confirmed according to the WHO interim guidance. The data of consecutive severely and critically ill patients with COVID-19 admitted to these hospitals were analyzed. A total of 566 patients from the People’s Hospital of Wuhan University were included in the training cohort and 436 patients from Leishenshan Hospital were included in the validation cohort. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and multivariable logistic regression were used to select the variables and build the mortality risk prediction model. RESULTS: The prediction model was presented as a nomograph and developed based on identified predictors, including age, chronic lung disease, C-reactive protein (CRP), D-dimer levels, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), creatinine, and total bilirubin. In the training cohort, the model displayed good discrimination with an AUC of 0.912 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.884–0.940] and good calibration (intercept = 0; slope = 1). In the validation cohort, the model had an AUC of 0.922 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.891–0.953] and a good calibration (intercept = 0.056; slope = 1.161). The decision curve analysis (DCA) demonstrated that the nomogram was clinically useful. CONCLUSION: A risk score for severely and critically ill COVID-19 patients' mortality was developed and externally validated. This model can help clinicians to identify individual patients at a high mortality risk.