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Improving inference for nonlinear state‐space models of animal population dynamics given biased sequential life stage data

State‐space models (SSMs) are a popular tool for modeling animal abundances. Inference difficulties for simple linear SSMs are well known, particularly in relation to simultaneous estimation of process and observation variances. Several remedies to overcome estimation problems have been studied for...

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Autores principales: Polansky, Leo, Newman, Ken B., Mitchell, Lara
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7984174/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32243577
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/biom.13267
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author Polansky, Leo
Newman, Ken B.
Mitchell, Lara
author_facet Polansky, Leo
Newman, Ken B.
Mitchell, Lara
author_sort Polansky, Leo
collection PubMed
description State‐space models (SSMs) are a popular tool for modeling animal abundances. Inference difficulties for simple linear SSMs are well known, particularly in relation to simultaneous estimation of process and observation variances. Several remedies to overcome estimation problems have been studied for relatively simple SSMs, but whether these challenges and proposed remedies apply for nonlinear stage‐structured SSMs, an important class of ecological models, is less well understood. Here we identify improvements for inference about nonlinear stage‐structured SSMs fit with biased sequential life stage data. Theoretical analyses indicate parameter identifiability requires covariates in the state processes. Simulation studies show that plugging in externally estimated observation variances, as opposed to jointly estimating them with other parameters, reduces bias and standard error of estimates. In contrast to previous results for simple linear SSMs, strong confounding between jointly estimated process and observation variance parameters was not found in the models explored here. However, when observation variance was also estimated in the motivating case study, the resulting process variance estimates were implausibly low (near‐zero). As SSMs are used in increasingly complex ways, understanding when inference can be expected to be successful, and what aids it, becomes more important. Our study illustrates (a) the need for relevant process covariates and (b) the benefits of using externally estimated observation variances for inference about nonlinear stage‐structured SSMs.
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spelling pubmed-79841742021-03-24 Improving inference for nonlinear state‐space models of animal population dynamics given biased sequential life stage data Polansky, Leo Newman, Ken B. Mitchell, Lara Biometrics Biometric Practice State‐space models (SSMs) are a popular tool for modeling animal abundances. Inference difficulties for simple linear SSMs are well known, particularly in relation to simultaneous estimation of process and observation variances. Several remedies to overcome estimation problems have been studied for relatively simple SSMs, but whether these challenges and proposed remedies apply for nonlinear stage‐structured SSMs, an important class of ecological models, is less well understood. Here we identify improvements for inference about nonlinear stage‐structured SSMs fit with biased sequential life stage data. Theoretical analyses indicate parameter identifiability requires covariates in the state processes. Simulation studies show that plugging in externally estimated observation variances, as opposed to jointly estimating them with other parameters, reduces bias and standard error of estimates. In contrast to previous results for simple linear SSMs, strong confounding between jointly estimated process and observation variance parameters was not found in the models explored here. However, when observation variance was also estimated in the motivating case study, the resulting process variance estimates were implausibly low (near‐zero). As SSMs are used in increasingly complex ways, understanding when inference can be expected to be successful, and what aids it, becomes more important. Our study illustrates (a) the need for relevant process covariates and (b) the benefits of using externally estimated observation variances for inference about nonlinear stage‐structured SSMs. John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2020-04-25 2021-03 /pmc/articles/PMC7984174/ /pubmed/32243577 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/biom.13267 Text en Published 2020. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Biometrics published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of International Biometric Society. This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Biometric Practice
Polansky, Leo
Newman, Ken B.
Mitchell, Lara
Improving inference for nonlinear state‐space models of animal population dynamics given biased sequential life stage data
title Improving inference for nonlinear state‐space models of animal population dynamics given biased sequential life stage data
title_full Improving inference for nonlinear state‐space models of animal population dynamics given biased sequential life stage data
title_fullStr Improving inference for nonlinear state‐space models of animal population dynamics given biased sequential life stage data
title_full_unstemmed Improving inference for nonlinear state‐space models of animal population dynamics given biased sequential life stage data
title_short Improving inference for nonlinear state‐space models of animal population dynamics given biased sequential life stage data
title_sort improving inference for nonlinear state‐space models of animal population dynamics given biased sequential life stage data
topic Biometric Practice
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7984174/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32243577
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/biom.13267
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