Municipality-Level Predictors of COVID-19 Mortality in Mexico: A Cautionary Tale

OBJECTIVE: Local characteristics of populations have been associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outcomes. We analyze the municipality-level factors associated with a high COVID-19 mortality rate (MR) of in Mexico. METHODS: We retrieved information from cumulative confirmed symptomatic cases and deaths from COVID-19 as of June 20, 2020, and data from most recent census and surveys of Mexico. A negative binomial regression model was adjusted, the dependent variable was the number of COVID-19 deaths, and the independent variables were the quintiles of the distribution of sociodemographic and health characteristics among the 2457 municipalities of Mexico. RESULTS: Factors associated with high MRs from COVID-19, relative to quintile 1, were diabetes and obesity prevalence, diabetes mortality rate, indigenous population, economically active population, density of economic units that operate essential activities, and population density. Among factors inversely associated with lower MRs from COVID-19 were high hypertension prevalence and houses without sewage drainage. We identified 1351 municipalities without confirmed COVID-19 deaths, of which, 202 had high and 82 very high expected COVID-19 mortality (mean = 8 and 13.8 deaths per 100,000, respectively). CONCLUSION: This study identified municipalities of Mexico that could lead to a high mortality scenario later in the epidemic and warns against premature easing of mobility restrictions and to reinforce strategies of prevention and control of outbreaks in communities vulnerable to COVID-19.