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Analysis of the early COVID-19 epidemic curve in Germany by regression models with change points
We analysed the coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic curve from March to the end of April 2020 in Germany. We use statistical models to estimate the number of cases with disease onset on a given day and use back-projection techniques to obtain the number of new infections per day. The respective time s...
Autores principales: | , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Cambridge University Press
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7985895/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33691815 http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0950268821000558 |
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author | Küchenhoff, Helmut Günther, Felix Höhle, Michael Bender, Andreas |
author_facet | Küchenhoff, Helmut Günther, Felix Höhle, Michael Bender, Andreas |
author_sort | Küchenhoff, Helmut |
collection | PubMed |
description | We analysed the coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic curve from March to the end of April 2020 in Germany. We use statistical models to estimate the number of cases with disease onset on a given day and use back-projection techniques to obtain the number of new infections per day. The respective time series are analysed by a trend regression model with change points. The change points are estimated directly from the data. We carry out the analysis for the whole of Germany and the federal state of Bavaria, where we have more detailed data. Both analyses show a major change between 9 and 13 March for the time series of infections: from a strong increase to a decrease. Another change was found between 25 March and 29 March, where the decline intensified. Furthermore, we perform an analysis stratified by age. A main result is a delayed course of the pandemic for the age group 80 + resulting in a turning point at the end of March. Our results differ from those by other authors as we take into account the reporting delay, which turned out to be time dependent and therefore changes the structure of the epidemic curve compared to the curve of newly reported cases. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7985895 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Cambridge University Press |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-79858952021-03-25 Analysis of the early COVID-19 epidemic curve in Germany by regression models with change points Küchenhoff, Helmut Günther, Felix Höhle, Michael Bender, Andreas Epidemiol Infect Original Paper We analysed the coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic curve from March to the end of April 2020 in Germany. We use statistical models to estimate the number of cases with disease onset on a given day and use back-projection techniques to obtain the number of new infections per day. The respective time series are analysed by a trend regression model with change points. The change points are estimated directly from the data. We carry out the analysis for the whole of Germany and the federal state of Bavaria, where we have more detailed data. Both analyses show a major change between 9 and 13 March for the time series of infections: from a strong increase to a decrease. Another change was found between 25 March and 29 March, where the decline intensified. Furthermore, we perform an analysis stratified by age. A main result is a delayed course of the pandemic for the age group 80 + resulting in a turning point at the end of March. Our results differ from those by other authors as we take into account the reporting delay, which turned out to be time dependent and therefore changes the structure of the epidemic curve compared to the curve of newly reported cases. Cambridge University Press 2021-03-11 /pmc/articles/PMC7985895/ /pubmed/33691815 http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0950268821000558 Text en © The Author(s) 2021 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
spellingShingle | Original Paper Küchenhoff, Helmut Günther, Felix Höhle, Michael Bender, Andreas Analysis of the early COVID-19 epidemic curve in Germany by regression models with change points |
title | Analysis of the early COVID-19 epidemic curve in Germany by regression models with change points |
title_full | Analysis of the early COVID-19 epidemic curve in Germany by regression models with change points |
title_fullStr | Analysis of the early COVID-19 epidemic curve in Germany by regression models with change points |
title_full_unstemmed | Analysis of the early COVID-19 epidemic curve in Germany by regression models with change points |
title_short | Analysis of the early COVID-19 epidemic curve in Germany by regression models with change points |
title_sort | analysis of the early covid-19 epidemic curve in germany by regression models with change points |
topic | Original Paper |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7985895/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33691815 http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0950268821000558 |
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