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Human choice to self-isolate in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic: A game dynamic modelling approach

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) involving social-isolation strategies such as self-quarantine (SQ) and social-distancing (SD) are useful in controlling the spread of infections that are transmitted through human-to–human contacts, e.g., respiratory diseases such as COVID-19. In the absence o...

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Autores principales: Ngonghala, Calistus N., Goel, Palak, Kutor, Daniel, Bhattacharyya, Samit
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier Ltd. 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7986308/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33771612
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2021.110692
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author Ngonghala, Calistus N.
Goel, Palak
Kutor, Daniel
Bhattacharyya, Samit
author_facet Ngonghala, Calistus N.
Goel, Palak
Kutor, Daniel
Bhattacharyya, Samit
author_sort Ngonghala, Calistus N.
collection PubMed
description Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) involving social-isolation strategies such as self-quarantine (SQ) and social-distancing (SD) are useful in controlling the spread of infections that are transmitted through human-to–human contacts, e.g., respiratory diseases such as COVID-19. In the absence of a safe and effective cure or vaccine during the first ten months of the COVID-19 pandemic, countries around the world implemented these social-isolation strategies and other NPIs to reduce COVID-19 transmission. But, individual and public perception play a crucial role in the success of any social-isolation measure. Thus, in spite of governments’ initiatives to use NPIs to combat COVID-19 in many countries around the world, individual choices rendered social-isolation unsuccessful in some of these countries. This resulted in huge outbreaks that imposed a substantial morbidity, mortality, hospitalization, economic, etc., toll on human lives. In particular, human choices pose serious challenges to public health strategic decision-making in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic. To unravel the impact of this behavioral response to social-isolation on the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic, we develop a model framework that integrates COVID-19 transmission dynamics with a multi-strategy evolutionary game approach of individual decision-making. We use this integrated framework to characterize the evolution of human choices in social-isolation as the disease progresses and public health control measures such as mandatory lockdowns are implemented. Analysis of the model illustrates that SD plays a major role in reducing the burden of the disease compared to SQ. Parameter estimation using COVID-19 incidence data, as well as different lockdown data sets from India, and scenario analysis involving a combination of Voluntary-Mandatory implementation of SQ and SD shows that the effectiveness of this approach depends on the type of isolation, and the time and period of implementation of the selected isolation measure during the outbreak.
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spelling pubmed-79863082021-03-24 Human choice to self-isolate in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic: A game dynamic modelling approach Ngonghala, Calistus N. Goel, Palak Kutor, Daniel Bhattacharyya, Samit J Theor Biol Article Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) involving social-isolation strategies such as self-quarantine (SQ) and social-distancing (SD) are useful in controlling the spread of infections that are transmitted through human-to–human contacts, e.g., respiratory diseases such as COVID-19. In the absence of a safe and effective cure or vaccine during the first ten months of the COVID-19 pandemic, countries around the world implemented these social-isolation strategies and other NPIs to reduce COVID-19 transmission. But, individual and public perception play a crucial role in the success of any social-isolation measure. Thus, in spite of governments’ initiatives to use NPIs to combat COVID-19 in many countries around the world, individual choices rendered social-isolation unsuccessful in some of these countries. This resulted in huge outbreaks that imposed a substantial morbidity, mortality, hospitalization, economic, etc., toll on human lives. In particular, human choices pose serious challenges to public health strategic decision-making in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic. To unravel the impact of this behavioral response to social-isolation on the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic, we develop a model framework that integrates COVID-19 transmission dynamics with a multi-strategy evolutionary game approach of individual decision-making. We use this integrated framework to characterize the evolution of human choices in social-isolation as the disease progresses and public health control measures such as mandatory lockdowns are implemented. Analysis of the model illustrates that SD plays a major role in reducing the burden of the disease compared to SQ. Parameter estimation using COVID-19 incidence data, as well as different lockdown data sets from India, and scenario analysis involving a combination of Voluntary-Mandatory implementation of SQ and SD shows that the effectiveness of this approach depends on the type of isolation, and the time and period of implementation of the selected isolation measure during the outbreak. Elsevier Ltd. 2021-07-21 2021-03-23 /pmc/articles/PMC7986308/ /pubmed/33771612 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2021.110692 Text en © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Ngonghala, Calistus N.
Goel, Palak
Kutor, Daniel
Bhattacharyya, Samit
Human choice to self-isolate in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic: A game dynamic modelling approach
title Human choice to self-isolate in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic: A game dynamic modelling approach
title_full Human choice to self-isolate in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic: A game dynamic modelling approach
title_fullStr Human choice to self-isolate in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic: A game dynamic modelling approach
title_full_unstemmed Human choice to self-isolate in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic: A game dynamic modelling approach
title_short Human choice to self-isolate in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic: A game dynamic modelling approach
title_sort human choice to self-isolate in the face of the covid-19 pandemic: a game dynamic modelling approach
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7986308/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33771612
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2021.110692
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