Retinal arteriolar calibre and venular fractal dimension predict progression of proliferative diabetic retinopathy 6 months after panretinal photocoagulation: a prospective, clinical interventional study

OBJECTIVE: We examined the hypothesis that baseline retinal vascular geometry in patients with proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR) predicts disease activity 6 months after panretinal photocoagulation (PRP). METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We included 47 eyes from 40 patients with treatment-naïve PDR in a 6-month prospective study. Diagnosis of PDR and disease activity was evaluated by wide-field fluorescein angiography (Optomap, Optos, Dunfermline, Scotland, UK). At baseline and 6-month follow-up, the retinal vessel geometry was measured on optic disc centred images using semiautomated software Vessel Assessment and Measurement Platform for Images of the Retina (VAMPIRE, Dundee, Scotland). RESULTS: At baseline, mean age and duration of diabetes was 51.6 and 21.4 years, and 62.5% were men. Seventeen eyes (36.2%) had progression of PDR during follow-up. At baseline, we found higher retinal arteriolar calibre (31.3±0.8 vs 28.8±0.8 pixels, p=0.02) and venous fractal dimension (F(D)) (1.257±0.011 vs 1.222±0.011, p=0.02) in eyes with progression of PDR as compared with eyes with non-progression. In a multiple logistic regression model, both higher retinal arteriolar calibre (OR 1.34, 95% CI, 1.09 to 1.64, p<0.01) and venular F(D) (OR 1.15, 95% CI, 1.04 to 1.27, p<0.01) predicted progression of PDR. Venular calibre was seen to increase from baseline to month six regardless of disease progression (non-progression 45.0±0.7 vs 52.7±1.8 pixels, p<0.01; progression 46.2±0.8 vs 51.0±1.7 pixels, p<0.01). CONCLUSION: Our prospective study showed that arteriolar calibre and venular F(D) at baseline were predictive of disease activity 6 months after PRP treatment in patients with treatment-naïve PDR.