Evaluation of glycemic traits in susceptibility to COVID-19 risk: a Mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND: Observational studies suggest poorer glycemic traits and type 2 diabetes associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) risk although these findings could be confounded by socioeconomic position. We conducted a two-sample Mendelian randomization to clarify their role in COVID-19 risk and specific COVID-19 phenotypes (hospitalized and severe cases). METHOD: We identified genetic instruments for fasting glucose (n = 133,010), 2 h glucose (n = 42,854), glycated hemoglobin (n = 123,665), and type 2 diabetes (74,124 cases and 824,006 controls) from genome wide association studies and applied them to COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative summary statistics (17,965 COVID-19 cases and 1,370,547 population controls). We used inverse variance weighting to obtain the causal estimates of glycemic traits and genetic predisposition to type 2 diabetes in COVID-19 risk. Sensitivity analyses included MR-Egger and weighted median method. RESULTS: We found genetic predisposition to type 2 diabetes was not associated with any COVID-19 phenotype (OR: 1.00 per unit increase in log odds of having diabetes, 95%CI 0.97 to 1.04 for overall COVID-19; OR: 1.02, 95%CI 0.95 to 1.09 for hospitalized COVID-19; and OR: 1.00, 95%CI 0.93 to 1.08 for severe COVID-19). There were no strong evidence for an association of glycemic traits in COVID-19 phenotypes, apart from a potential inverse association for fasting glucose albeit with wide confidence interval. CONCLUSION: We provide some genetic evidence that poorer glycemic traits and predisposition to type 2 diabetes unlikely increase the risk of COVID-19. Although our study did not indicate glycemic traits increase severity of COVID-19, additional studies are needed to verify our findings. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12916-021-01944-3.