Multi-decadal trends in contingent mixing of Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in the Northwest Atlantic from otolith stable isotopes

The Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in the Northwest Atlantic is comprised of northern and southern components that have distinct spawning sites off Canada (northern contingent) and the US (southern contingent), and seasonally overlap in US fished regions. Thus, assessment and management of this population can be sensitive to levels of mixing between contingents, which remain unknown. Multi-decadal trends in contingent mixing levels within the US fisheries region were assessed, and the contingent composition across seasons, locations, ages, and size classes were characterized using archived otoliths and developing a classification baseline based on juvenile otolith carbon and oxygen stable isotopes (δ(13)C/δ(18)O values). Classification of age ≥ 2 adults demonstrated that northern contingent mixing was prevalent within the US continental shelf waters during the past 2 decades (2000–2019), providing an important seasonal subsidy to the US winter fishery despite substantial depletion in spawning stock biomass of the dominant northern contingent. While the majority of older fish were of the northern contingent during the early 2000s, the southern contingent contribution increased with age/size class during the recent period (2013–2019). Spatial mixing was most prevalent during February and March when the northern contingent occurred as far south as the Delmarva Peninsula, but were mostly absent from US waters in May. A positive relationship (albeit not significant; r = 0.60, p = 0.07) occurred between northern contingent mixing and US fisheries landings, which could imply that higher contingent mixing levels might be associated with greater landings for the US winter mackerel fishery. The yield of the Northwest Atlantic mackerel depends upon the status of the northern contingent, with the southern contingent possibly more prone to depletion. Spatially explicit stock assessment models are recommended to conserve both productivity and stability in this two-component population.