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Case fatality rates of COVID-19 across the globe: are the current draconian measures justified?

AIM: The current study assessed the case fatality rate (CFR) across different income level countries of the world, and the virulence pattern of COVID-19, against the backdrop of panic and uncertainty faced by many governments, who are trying to impose draconian containment measures to control the ou...

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Autores principales: Sreedharan, Jayadevan, Nair, Satish Chandrasekhar, Muttappallymyalil, Jayakumary, Gopakumar, Aji, Eapen, Neena Thomas, Satish, Karthyayani Priya, Manda, Venkatramana
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7988255/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33777655
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10389-021-01491-4
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author Sreedharan, Jayadevan
Nair, Satish Chandrasekhar
Muttappallymyalil, Jayakumary
Gopakumar, Aji
Eapen, Neena Thomas
Satish, Karthyayani Priya
Manda, Venkatramana
author_facet Sreedharan, Jayadevan
Nair, Satish Chandrasekhar
Muttappallymyalil, Jayakumary
Gopakumar, Aji
Eapen, Neena Thomas
Satish, Karthyayani Priya
Manda, Venkatramana
author_sort Sreedharan, Jayadevan
collection PubMed
description AIM: The current study assessed the case fatality rate (CFR) across different income level countries of the world, and the virulence pattern of COVID-19, against the backdrop of panic and uncertainty faced by many governments, who are trying to impose draconian containment measures to control the outbreak. Subjects and Methods: Data on confirmed cases and number of deaths due to coronavirus infection were retrieved from the WHO as on 30 March 2020, and examined for the various income level countries, per the World Bank criteria. The CFR was calculated country-wise and estimated for the various groups such as low, lower-middle, upper-middle, and high-income, and the data was analyzed. RESULTS: The overall CFR for the high income countries was 5.0%, compared with a CFR of 2.8% for low-income countries. The upper-middle-income countries showed a CFR of 4.3%, while the lower-middle-income countries stood at 3.7%. The results from our study predict that the maximum CFR in high-income countries will be contained at approximately 5% (95% CI). The CFR for the low, lower-middle, and upper-middle-income countries will range between 2.8 and 4.3% (95% CI). CONCLUSION: COVID-19, irrespective of its transmissibility, produces a lower CFR compared with that of SARS-Cov and MERS-Cov, although COVID-19 has infected eight times more countries than MERS-Cov and SARS-Cov, and caused a higher number of deaths. The nation-wide lockdown measures to prevent the spread of the virus may be reconsidered, given the hardships for the population and their impact on the economic system.
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spelling pubmed-79882552021-03-24 Case fatality rates of COVID-19 across the globe: are the current draconian measures justified? Sreedharan, Jayadevan Nair, Satish Chandrasekhar Muttappallymyalil, Jayakumary Gopakumar, Aji Eapen, Neena Thomas Satish, Karthyayani Priya Manda, Venkatramana Z Gesundh Wiss Original Article AIM: The current study assessed the case fatality rate (CFR) across different income level countries of the world, and the virulence pattern of COVID-19, against the backdrop of panic and uncertainty faced by many governments, who are trying to impose draconian containment measures to control the outbreak. Subjects and Methods: Data on confirmed cases and number of deaths due to coronavirus infection were retrieved from the WHO as on 30 March 2020, and examined for the various income level countries, per the World Bank criteria. The CFR was calculated country-wise and estimated for the various groups such as low, lower-middle, upper-middle, and high-income, and the data was analyzed. RESULTS: The overall CFR for the high income countries was 5.0%, compared with a CFR of 2.8% for low-income countries. The upper-middle-income countries showed a CFR of 4.3%, while the lower-middle-income countries stood at 3.7%. The results from our study predict that the maximum CFR in high-income countries will be contained at approximately 5% (95% CI). The CFR for the low, lower-middle, and upper-middle-income countries will range between 2.8 and 4.3% (95% CI). CONCLUSION: COVID-19, irrespective of its transmissibility, produces a lower CFR compared with that of SARS-Cov and MERS-Cov, although COVID-19 has infected eight times more countries than MERS-Cov and SARS-Cov, and caused a higher number of deaths. The nation-wide lockdown measures to prevent the spread of the virus may be reconsidered, given the hardships for the population and their impact on the economic system. Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2021-03-24 2022 /pmc/articles/PMC7988255/ /pubmed/33777655 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10389-021-01491-4 Text en © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2021 This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
spellingShingle Original Article
Sreedharan, Jayadevan
Nair, Satish Chandrasekhar
Muttappallymyalil, Jayakumary
Gopakumar, Aji
Eapen, Neena Thomas
Satish, Karthyayani Priya
Manda, Venkatramana
Case fatality rates of COVID-19 across the globe: are the current draconian measures justified?
title Case fatality rates of COVID-19 across the globe: are the current draconian measures justified?
title_full Case fatality rates of COVID-19 across the globe: are the current draconian measures justified?
title_fullStr Case fatality rates of COVID-19 across the globe: are the current draconian measures justified?
title_full_unstemmed Case fatality rates of COVID-19 across the globe: are the current draconian measures justified?
title_short Case fatality rates of COVID-19 across the globe: are the current draconian measures justified?
title_sort case fatality rates of covid-19 across the globe: are the current draconian measures justified?
topic Original Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7988255/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33777655
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10389-021-01491-4
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