Direct comparison of predictive performance of PRECISE-DAPT versus PARIS versus CREDO-Kyoto: a subanalysis of the ReCre8 trial

BACKGROUND: Multiple scores have been proposed to guide risk stratification after percutaneous coronary intervention. This study assessed the performance of the PRECISE-DAPT, PARIS and CREDO-Kyoto risk scores to predict post-discharge ischaemic or bleeding events. METHODS: A total of 1491 patients treated with latest-generation drug-eluting stent implantation were evaluated. Risk scores for post-discharge ischaemic or bleeding events were calculated and directly compared. Prognostic performance of both risk scores was assessed with calibration, Harrell’s c‑statistics net reclassification index and decision curve analyses. RESULTS: Post-discharge ischaemic events occurred in 56 patients (3.8%) and post-discharge bleeding events in 34 patients (2.3%) within the first year after the invasive procedure. C‑statistics for the PARIS ischaemic risk score was marginal (0.59, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.51–0.68), whereas the CREDO-Kyoto ischaemic risk score was moderate (0.68, 95% CI 0.60–0.75). With regard to post-discharge bleeding events, CREDO-Kyoto displayed moderate discrimination (c-statistic 0.67, 95% CI 0.56–0.77), whereas PRECISE-DAPT (0.59, 95% CI 0.48–0.69) and PARIS (0.55, 95% CI 0.44–0.65) had a marginal discriminative capacity. Net reclassification index and decision curve analysis favoured CREDO-Kyoto-derived bleeding risk assessment. CONCLUSION: In this contemporary all-comer population, PARIS and PRECISE-DAPT risk scores were not resilient to independent testing for post-discharge bleeding events. CREDO-Kyoto-derived risk stratification was associated with a moderate predictive capability for post-discharge ischaemic or bleeding events. Future studies are warranted to improve risk stratification with more focus on robustness and rigorous testing. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s12471-020-01486-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.