Factors related to baseline CD4 cell counts in HIV/AIDS patients: comparison of poisson, generalized poisson and negative binomial regression models

OBJECTIVE: CD4 Lymphocyte Count (CD4) is a major predictor of HIV progression to AIDS. Exploring the factors affecting CD4 levels may assist healthcare staff and patients in management and monitoring of health cares. This retrospective cohort study aimed to explore factors associated with CD4 cell counts at the time of diagnosis in HIV patients using Poisson, Generalized Poisson, and Negative Binomial regression models. RESULTS: Out of 4402 HIV patients diagnosis in Iran from 1987 to 2016, 3030 (68.8%) were males, and the mean age was 34.8 ± 10.4 years. The results indicate that the Negative Binomial model outperformed the other models in terms of AIC, log-likelihood and RMSE criteria. In this model, factors include sex, age, clinical stage and Tuberculosis (TB) co-infection were significantly associated with CD4 count (P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Given the effect of age, sex, clinical stage and stage of HIV on CD4 count of the patients, adopting policies and strategies to increase awareness and encourage people to seek early HIV testing and care is advantageous.