Population aging and trends of pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in the elderly

BACKGROUND: To explore population aging and the epidemic trend of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in the elderly, and provide a basis for the prevention and control of pulmonary tuberculosis among the elderly. METHODS: We collected clinical information of 239,707 newly active PTB patients in Shandong Province from 2005 to 2017. We analyzed and compared the clinical characteristics, reported incidence and temporal trend of PTB among the elderly group (≥60 years) and the non-elderly group (< 60 years) through logistic model and Join-point regression model. RESULTS: Among the total PTB cases, 77,192(32.2%) were elderly. Compared with non-elderly patients, newly active elderly PTB patients account for a greater proportion of male cases (OR 1.688, 95% CI 1.656–1.722), rural population cases (OR 3.411, 95% CI 3.320–3.505) and bacteriologically confirmed PTB cases (OR 1.213, 95%CI 1.193–1.234). The annual reported incidence of total, elderly, pulmonary bacteriologically confirmed cases were 35.21, 68.84, 35.63 (per 100,000), respectively. The annual reported incidence of PTB in the whole population, the elderly group and the non-elderly group has shown a slow downward trend since 2008. The joinpoint regression model showed that the overall reported incidence of PTB in the elderly significantly decreased from 2007 to 2017 (APC = -5.3, P < 0.05). The reported incidence of bacteriologically confirmed PTB among elderly patients declined rapidly from 2005 to 2014(2005–2010 APC = -7.2%, P < 0.05; 2010–2014 APC = -22.6%, P < 0.05; 2014–2017 APC = -9.0%, P = 0.1). The reported incidence of clinically diagnosed PTB among elderly patients from 2005 to 2017 (11.48–38.42/100,000) increased by about 235%. It rose significantly from 2007 to 2014 (APC = 9.4, P<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Compared with the non-elderly population, the reported incidence of PTB in the elderly population is higher. The main burden of PTB will shift to the elderly, men, rural population, and clinically diagnosed patients. With the intensification of aging, more researches on elderly PTB prevention and treatment will facilitate the realization of the global tuberculosis (TB) control targets.