Designing a Logistic Regression Model for a Dataset to Predict Diabetic Foot Ulcer in Diabetic Patients: High-Density Lipoprotein (HDL) Cholesterol Was the Negative Predictor

OBJECTIVES: Although the risk factors for diabetic neuropathy and diabetic foot ulcer have been detected, there was no practical modeling for their prediction. We aimed to design a logistic regression model on an Iranian dataset to predict the probability of experiencing diabetic foot ulcers up to a considered age in diabetic patients. METHODS: The present study was a statistical modeling on a previously published dataset. The covariates were sex, age, body mass index (BMI), fasting blood sugar (FBS), hemoglobin A1C (HbA1C), low-density lipoprotein (LDL), high-density lipoprotein (HDL), triglyceride (TG), insulin dependency, and statin use. The final model of logistic regression was designed through a manual stepwise method. To study the performance of the model, an area under receiver operating characteristic (AUC) curve was reported. A scoring system was defined according to the beta coefficients to be used in logistic function for calculation of the probability. RESULTS: The pretest probability for the outcome was 30.83%. The final model consisted of age (β1 = 0.133), BMI (β2 = 0.194), FBS (β3 = 0.011), HDL (β4 = −0.118), and insulin dependency (β5 = 0.986) (P < 0.1). The performance of the model was definitely acceptable (AUC = 0.914). CONCLUSION: This model can be used clinically for consulting the patients. The only negative predictor of the risk is HDL cholesterol. Keeping the HDL level more than 50 (mg/dl) is strongly suggested. Logistic regression modeling is a simple and practical method to be used in the clinic.