The Pitfalls in the Path of Probabilistic Inference in Forensic Entomology: A Review

SIMPLE SUMMARY: Experimental studies in forensic entomology must follow a series of rules to generate accurate predictions about criminal cases. These rules are reviewed and some approaches that have been used to solve experimental problems in forensic entomology are presented. Finally, recommendations are provided to avoid the publication and possible use in court of forensic studies that fall short of experimental standards. ABSTRACT: To bridge the gap between experimentation and the court of law, studies in forensic entomology and other forensic sciences have to comply with a set of experimental rules to generate probabilistic inference of quality. These rules are illustrated with successional studies of insects on a decomposing substrate as the main example. The approaches that have been used in the scientific literature to solve the issues associated with successional data are then reviewed. Lastly, some advice to scientific editors, reviewers and academic supervisors is provided to prevent the publication and eventual use in court of forensic studies using poor research methods and abusing statistical procedures