An application of probability density function for the analysis of PM2.5 concentration during the COVID-19 lockdown period

The first Covid-19 patient in India was reported on January 30, 2020 at the state of Kerala. The patient number rose to three by February 3, 2020. In the month of March 2020, the transmissions started to increase when the people started to return back to India from the Covid-19 affected countries. On March 12, a 76-year-old man having a travel history to Saudi Arabia was the first reported fatality in India due to Covid 19. Then for the prevention of the propagation of Covid, the Indian government declared a state of health emergency and strict counter measures were taken, including locking down of cities, prohibiting almost all avoidable activities and restricting population's mobility. From March 24, 2020 due to the complete lockdown in the country, human activities were heavily restricted in the whole geographical regions of India. This pandemic lockdown eventually serves as an opportunity to observe the background concentrations of pollutants in the atmosphere. The PM 2.5 distribution can affect human health and to overcome this problem, setting up of regulation for PM is necessary. In the present study Probability density functions (PDF) method have been utilised for the investigation of PM 2.5 pollutant data distribution of five countries namely, India, China, France, Brazil and United States of America (USA) for their respective lockdown period of 2020 and corresponding same period of 2019. A detailed study has been done for India, and for that purpose India has been divided into three regions (Central India, Coastal India and Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP)) on the basis of different meteorological conditions. PM 2.5 concentration for hourly basis has been analysed for the lockdown period 24th March to 15th June 2020 and compared with the PM 2.5 concentration of previous year 2019 for the same time period. To understand the effect of lockdown in PM 2.5 emission in India, which will give us an idea about the background concentration, PDFs (probability density functions) have also been generated for the whole year from 2015 to 2019. The “goodness-of-fit” of the probability density functions, to the data, was assessed, using various statistical indices (Chi-square test). Results show that the PM 2.5 reduction during the lockdown period of 2020 as compared to the same period of 2019 is sufficiently large. This study will give a certain degree of idea to the regulatory bodies on planning and implementation of strict air quality control plans.