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Measuring Time-Varying Effective Reproduction Numbers for COVID-19 and Their Relationship with Movement Control Order in Malaysia
To curb the spread of SARS-CoV-2 virus (COVID-19) in Malaysia, the government imposed a nationwide movement control order (MCO) from 18 March 2020 to 3 May 2020. It was enforced in four phases (i.e., MCO 1, MCO 2, MCO 3 and MCO 4). In this paper, we propose an initiative to assess the impact of MCO...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
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MDPI
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8004218/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33809958 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18063273 |
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author | Musa, Kamarul Imran Arifin, Wan Nor Mohd, Mohd Hafiz Jamiluddin, Mohammad Subhi Ahmad, Noor Atinah Chen, Xin Wee Hanis, Tengku Muhammad Bulgiba, Awang |
author_facet | Musa, Kamarul Imran Arifin, Wan Nor Mohd, Mohd Hafiz Jamiluddin, Mohammad Subhi Ahmad, Noor Atinah Chen, Xin Wee Hanis, Tengku Muhammad Bulgiba, Awang |
author_sort | Musa, Kamarul Imran |
collection | PubMed |
description | To curb the spread of SARS-CoV-2 virus (COVID-19) in Malaysia, the government imposed a nationwide movement control order (MCO) from 18 March 2020 to 3 May 2020. It was enforced in four phases (i.e., MCO 1, MCO 2, MCO 3 and MCO 4). In this paper, we propose an initiative to assess the impact of MCO by using time-varying reproduction number (Rt). We used data from the Johns Hopkins University Centre for Systems Science and Engineering Coronavirus repository. Day 1 was taken from the first assumed local transmission of COVID-19. We estimated Rt by using the EpiEstim package and plotted the epidemic curve and Rt. Then, we extracted the mean Rt at day 1, day 5 and day 10 for all MCO phases and compared the differences. The Rt values peaked around day 43, which was shortly before the start of MCO 1. The means for Rt at day 1, day 5, and day 10 for all MCOs ranged between 0.665 and 1.147. The average Rt gradually decreased in MCO 1 and MCO 2. Although spikes in the number of confirmed cases were observed when restrictions were gradually relaxed in the later MCO phases, the situation remained under control with Rt values being stabilised to below unity level (Rt value less than one). |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8004218 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | MDPI |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-80042182021-03-28 Measuring Time-Varying Effective Reproduction Numbers for COVID-19 and Their Relationship with Movement Control Order in Malaysia Musa, Kamarul Imran Arifin, Wan Nor Mohd, Mohd Hafiz Jamiluddin, Mohammad Subhi Ahmad, Noor Atinah Chen, Xin Wee Hanis, Tengku Muhammad Bulgiba, Awang Int J Environ Res Public Health Article To curb the spread of SARS-CoV-2 virus (COVID-19) in Malaysia, the government imposed a nationwide movement control order (MCO) from 18 March 2020 to 3 May 2020. It was enforced in four phases (i.e., MCO 1, MCO 2, MCO 3 and MCO 4). In this paper, we propose an initiative to assess the impact of MCO by using time-varying reproduction number (Rt). We used data from the Johns Hopkins University Centre for Systems Science and Engineering Coronavirus repository. Day 1 was taken from the first assumed local transmission of COVID-19. We estimated Rt by using the EpiEstim package and plotted the epidemic curve and Rt. Then, we extracted the mean Rt at day 1, day 5 and day 10 for all MCO phases and compared the differences. The Rt values peaked around day 43, which was shortly before the start of MCO 1. The means for Rt at day 1, day 5, and day 10 for all MCOs ranged between 0.665 and 1.147. The average Rt gradually decreased in MCO 1 and MCO 2. Although spikes in the number of confirmed cases were observed when restrictions were gradually relaxed in the later MCO phases, the situation remained under control with Rt values being stabilised to below unity level (Rt value less than one). MDPI 2021-03-22 /pmc/articles/PMC8004218/ /pubmed/33809958 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18063273 Text en © 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). |
spellingShingle | Article Musa, Kamarul Imran Arifin, Wan Nor Mohd, Mohd Hafiz Jamiluddin, Mohammad Subhi Ahmad, Noor Atinah Chen, Xin Wee Hanis, Tengku Muhammad Bulgiba, Awang Measuring Time-Varying Effective Reproduction Numbers for COVID-19 and Their Relationship with Movement Control Order in Malaysia |
title | Measuring Time-Varying Effective Reproduction Numbers for COVID-19 and Their Relationship with Movement Control Order in Malaysia |
title_full | Measuring Time-Varying Effective Reproduction Numbers for COVID-19 and Their Relationship with Movement Control Order in Malaysia |
title_fullStr | Measuring Time-Varying Effective Reproduction Numbers for COVID-19 and Their Relationship with Movement Control Order in Malaysia |
title_full_unstemmed | Measuring Time-Varying Effective Reproduction Numbers for COVID-19 and Their Relationship with Movement Control Order in Malaysia |
title_short | Measuring Time-Varying Effective Reproduction Numbers for COVID-19 and Their Relationship with Movement Control Order in Malaysia |
title_sort | measuring time-varying effective reproduction numbers for covid-19 and their relationship with movement control order in malaysia |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8004218/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33809958 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18063273 |
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