Characteristics and Predictors of Radiographic Local Failure in Patients With Spinal Metastases Treated With Palliative Conventional Radiation Therapy

PURPOSE: Although local control is an important issue for longer-term survivors of spinal metastases treated with conventional external beam radiation therapy (EBRT), the literature on radiographic local failure (LF) in these patients is sparse. To inform clinical decision-making, we evaluated rates, consequences, and predictors of radiographic LF in patients with spinal metastases managed with palliative conventional EBRT alone. METHODS AND MATERIALS: We retrospectively reviewed 296 patients with spinal metastases who received palliative EBRT at a single institution (2006-2013). Radiographic LF was defined as radiologic progression within the treatment field, with death considered a competing risk. Kaplan-Meier, cumulative incidence, and Cox regression analyses determined overall survival estimates, LF rates, and predictors of LF, respectively. RESULTS: There were 182 patients with follow-up computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging; median overall survival for these patients was 7.7 months. Patients received a median of 30 Gy in 10 fractions to a median of 4 vertebral bodies. Overall, 74 of 182 patients (40.7%) experienced LF. The 6-, 12-, and 18-month LF rates were 26.5%, 33.1%, and 36.5%, respectively, while corresponding rates of death were 24.3%, 38.1%, and 45.9%. Median time to LF was 3.8 months. Of those with LF, 51.4% had new compression fractures, 39.2% were admitted for pain control, and 35.1% received reirradiation; median time from radiation therapy (RT) to each of these events was 3.0, 5.7, and 9.2 months, respectively. Independent predictors of LF included single-fraction RT (8 Gy) (hazard ratio [HR], 2.592; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.437-4.675; P = .002), lung histology (HR, 3.568; 95% CI, 1.532-8.309; P = .003), and kidney histology (HR, 4.937; 95% CI, 1.529-15.935; P = .008). CONCLUSIONS: Patients experienced a >30% rate of radiographic LF by 1 year after EBRT. Single-fraction RT and lung or kidney histology predicted LF. Given the high rates of LF for patients with favorable prognosis, assessing the risk of death versus LF is important for clinical decision-making.