Cargando…
Containment of COVID-19: Simulating the impact of different policies and testing capacities for contact tracing, testing, and isolation
Efficient contact tracing and testing are fundamental tools to contain the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. We used multi-agent simulations to estimate the daily testing capacity required to find and isolate a number of infected agents sufficient to break the chain of transmission of SARS-CoV-2, so decre...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2021
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8011755/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33788852 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0247614 |
_version_ | 1783673268905967616 |
---|---|
author | Fiore, Vincenzo G. DeFelice, Nicholas Glicksberg, Benjamin S. Perl, Ofer Shuster, Anastasia Kulkarni, Kaustubh O’Brien, Madeline Pisauro, M. Andrea Chung, Dongil Gu, Xiaosi |
author_facet | Fiore, Vincenzo G. DeFelice, Nicholas Glicksberg, Benjamin S. Perl, Ofer Shuster, Anastasia Kulkarni, Kaustubh O’Brien, Madeline Pisauro, M. Andrea Chung, Dongil Gu, Xiaosi |
author_sort | Fiore, Vincenzo G. |
collection | PubMed |
description | Efficient contact tracing and testing are fundamental tools to contain the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. We used multi-agent simulations to estimate the daily testing capacity required to find and isolate a number of infected agents sufficient to break the chain of transmission of SARS-CoV-2, so decreasing the risk of new waves of infections. Depending on the non-pharmaceutical mitigation policies in place, the size of secondary infection clusters allowed or the percentage of asymptomatic and paucisymptomatic (i.e., subclinical) infections, we estimated that the daily testing capacity required to contain the disease varies between 0.7 and 9.1 tests per thousand agents in the population. However, we also found that if contact tracing and testing efficacy dropped below 60% (e.g. due to false negatives or reduced tracing capability), the number of new daily infections did not always decrease and could even increase exponentially, irrespective of the testing capacity. Under these conditions, we show that population-level information about geographical distribution and travel behaviour could inform sampling policies to aid a successful containment, while avoiding concerns about government-controlled mass surveillance. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8011755 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-80117552021-04-07 Containment of COVID-19: Simulating the impact of different policies and testing capacities for contact tracing, testing, and isolation Fiore, Vincenzo G. DeFelice, Nicholas Glicksberg, Benjamin S. Perl, Ofer Shuster, Anastasia Kulkarni, Kaustubh O’Brien, Madeline Pisauro, M. Andrea Chung, Dongil Gu, Xiaosi PLoS One Research Article Efficient contact tracing and testing are fundamental tools to contain the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. We used multi-agent simulations to estimate the daily testing capacity required to find and isolate a number of infected agents sufficient to break the chain of transmission of SARS-CoV-2, so decreasing the risk of new waves of infections. Depending on the non-pharmaceutical mitigation policies in place, the size of secondary infection clusters allowed or the percentage of asymptomatic and paucisymptomatic (i.e., subclinical) infections, we estimated that the daily testing capacity required to contain the disease varies between 0.7 and 9.1 tests per thousand agents in the population. However, we also found that if contact tracing and testing efficacy dropped below 60% (e.g. due to false negatives or reduced tracing capability), the number of new daily infections did not always decrease and could even increase exponentially, irrespective of the testing capacity. Under these conditions, we show that population-level information about geographical distribution and travel behaviour could inform sampling policies to aid a successful containment, while avoiding concerns about government-controlled mass surveillance. Public Library of Science 2021-03-31 /pmc/articles/PMC8011755/ /pubmed/33788852 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0247614 Text en © 2021 Fiore et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Fiore, Vincenzo G. DeFelice, Nicholas Glicksberg, Benjamin S. Perl, Ofer Shuster, Anastasia Kulkarni, Kaustubh O’Brien, Madeline Pisauro, M. Andrea Chung, Dongil Gu, Xiaosi Containment of COVID-19: Simulating the impact of different policies and testing capacities for contact tracing, testing, and isolation |
title | Containment of COVID-19: Simulating the impact of different policies and testing capacities for contact tracing, testing, and isolation |
title_full | Containment of COVID-19: Simulating the impact of different policies and testing capacities for contact tracing, testing, and isolation |
title_fullStr | Containment of COVID-19: Simulating the impact of different policies and testing capacities for contact tracing, testing, and isolation |
title_full_unstemmed | Containment of COVID-19: Simulating the impact of different policies and testing capacities for contact tracing, testing, and isolation |
title_short | Containment of COVID-19: Simulating the impact of different policies and testing capacities for contact tracing, testing, and isolation |
title_sort | containment of covid-19: simulating the impact of different policies and testing capacities for contact tracing, testing, and isolation |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8011755/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33788852 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0247614 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT fiorevincenzog containmentofcovid19simulatingtheimpactofdifferentpoliciesandtestingcapacitiesforcontacttracingtestingandisolation AT defelicenicholas containmentofcovid19simulatingtheimpactofdifferentpoliciesandtestingcapacitiesforcontacttracingtestingandisolation AT glicksbergbenjamins containmentofcovid19simulatingtheimpactofdifferentpoliciesandtestingcapacitiesforcontacttracingtestingandisolation AT perlofer containmentofcovid19simulatingtheimpactofdifferentpoliciesandtestingcapacitiesforcontacttracingtestingandisolation AT shusteranastasia containmentofcovid19simulatingtheimpactofdifferentpoliciesandtestingcapacitiesforcontacttracingtestingandisolation AT kulkarnikaustubh containmentofcovid19simulatingtheimpactofdifferentpoliciesandtestingcapacitiesforcontacttracingtestingandisolation AT obrienmadeline containmentofcovid19simulatingtheimpactofdifferentpoliciesandtestingcapacitiesforcontacttracingtestingandisolation AT pisauromandrea containmentofcovid19simulatingtheimpactofdifferentpoliciesandtestingcapacitiesforcontacttracingtestingandisolation AT chungdongil containmentofcovid19simulatingtheimpactofdifferentpoliciesandtestingcapacitiesforcontacttracingtestingandisolation AT guxiaosi containmentofcovid19simulatingtheimpactofdifferentpoliciesandtestingcapacitiesforcontacttracingtestingandisolation |