Ternary Diagram for Visualizing Epidemic Progression

In this work, we develop a ternary diagram approach for visualizing the progression of a disease outbreak. Based on cumulative epidemic statistics, the fraction of patients classified as active cases (A), recovered (R), and deceased (D) at any given time is plotted on a ternary diagram. The location of the point gives the relative proportions of cases in these three categories. The trajectory of this point over time provides an alternative scale-free indication of the state of the outbreak. This technique offers an alternative to the mainstream epidemic curves that plot the number of cases against time and can reveal trends not easily detected in conventional data displays. Because it relies on relative proportions rather than absolute numbers of patients in different categories, this method is more robust to errors caused by low diagnosis and detection rates. Such insights allow better prioritization of areas where more intensive measures are needed.