The value of serum progesterone level on day of human chorionic gonadotrophin administration / metaphase II oocyte ratio in predicting IVF/ICSI outcome in patients with normal ovarian reserve

BACKGROUND: The clinical implication of the increased serum progesterone level on the day of HCG administration in assisted reproduction treatment (ART) is still controversial. The current study aimed to compare the predictive value of serum progesterone on day of HCG administration / metaphase II oocyte (P/MII) ratio on IVF/ ICSI outcome to serum progesterone (P) level alone and the ratio of serum progesterone/estradiol level (P/E2) ratio in prediction of pregnancy rates after ART. MATERIAL & METHODS: Two hundred patients admitted to the IVF/ICSI program at Minia IVF center in Egypt in the period from October 2016 to May 2018 were included in this study. Serum Progesterone (P) and Estradiol (E2) levels were estimated on the day of HCG administration. The ratio between serum P and the number of MII oocytes (P/MII ratio) was calculated and the predictive values of the three parameters (P, P/E2 ratio and P/MII ratio) in prediction of cycle outcomes were measured. RESULTS: P/ MII oocyte ratio was significantly lower in patients who attained clinical pregnancy (n = 97) as compared with those who couldn’t whilst there was no significant difference in P and P/E2 ratio between the two groups. Using a cut off value of 0.125, the sensitivity and specificity of progesterone/ MII ratio in prediction of no pregnancy in IVF/ICSI were 75.7 and 77.1% respectively with the area under The Receiver operating curve (ROC-AUC) = 0.808. The respective values of the ROC-AUC for the P and P/E2 ratio were 0.651 and 0.712 with sensitivity and specificity of 71.2 and 73.5%for P level and of 72.5 and 75.3% for P/E2 ratio. Implantation or clinical pregnancy rates were significantly different between patients with high and low P/MII ratio irrespective of day of embryo transfer (day 3 or 5). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with normal ovarian response, serum progesterone on day of HCG / MII oocyte ratio can be a useful predictor of pregnancy outcomes and in deciding on freezing of all embryos for later transfer instead of high progesterone level alone.