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Spatiotemporal analysis of bubonic plague in Pernambuco, northeast of Brazil: Case study in the municipality of Exu

Along with other countries in America, plague reached Brazil through the sea routes during the third pandemic. A brief ports phase was followed by an urban phase that took place in smaller inland cities and finally, it attained the rural area and established several foci where the ecological conditi...

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Autores principales: Fernandes, Diego Leandro Reis da Silva, Gomes, Elainne Christine de Souza, Bezerra, Matheus Filgueira, e Guimarães, Ricardo José de Paula Souza, de Almeida, Alzira Maria Paiva
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8018616/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33798208
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0249464
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author Fernandes, Diego Leandro Reis da Silva
Gomes, Elainne Christine de Souza
Bezerra, Matheus Filgueira
e Guimarães, Ricardo José de Paula Souza
de Almeida, Alzira Maria Paiva
author_facet Fernandes, Diego Leandro Reis da Silva
Gomes, Elainne Christine de Souza
Bezerra, Matheus Filgueira
e Guimarães, Ricardo José de Paula Souza
de Almeida, Alzira Maria Paiva
author_sort Fernandes, Diego Leandro Reis da Silva
collection PubMed
description Along with other countries in America, plague reached Brazil through the sea routes during the third pandemic. A brief ports phase was followed by an urban phase that took place in smaller inland cities and finally, it attained the rural area and established several foci where the ecological conditions were suitable for its continued existence. However, the geographic dispersion of plague in Brazil is still poorly studied. To better understand the disease dynamics, we accessed satellite-based data to trace the spatial occurrence and distribution of human plague cases in Pernambuco, Northeastern Brazil and using the municipality of Exu as study case area. Along with the satellite data, a historical survey using the Plague Control Program files was applied to characterize the spatial and temporal dispersion of cases in the period of 1945–1976. Kernel density estimation, spatial and temporal clusters with statistical significance and maximum entropy modeling were used for spatial data analysis, by means of the spatial analysis software packages. The use of geostatistical tools allowed evidencing the shift of the infection from the urban to the wild-sylvatic areas and the reemergence of cases after a period of quiescence, independent of the reintroduction from other plague areas.
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spelling pubmed-80186162021-04-13 Spatiotemporal analysis of bubonic plague in Pernambuco, northeast of Brazil: Case study in the municipality of Exu Fernandes, Diego Leandro Reis da Silva Gomes, Elainne Christine de Souza Bezerra, Matheus Filgueira e Guimarães, Ricardo José de Paula Souza de Almeida, Alzira Maria Paiva PLoS One Research Article Along with other countries in America, plague reached Brazil through the sea routes during the third pandemic. A brief ports phase was followed by an urban phase that took place in smaller inland cities and finally, it attained the rural area and established several foci where the ecological conditions were suitable for its continued existence. However, the geographic dispersion of plague in Brazil is still poorly studied. To better understand the disease dynamics, we accessed satellite-based data to trace the spatial occurrence and distribution of human plague cases in Pernambuco, Northeastern Brazil and using the municipality of Exu as study case area. Along with the satellite data, a historical survey using the Plague Control Program files was applied to characterize the spatial and temporal dispersion of cases in the period of 1945–1976. Kernel density estimation, spatial and temporal clusters with statistical significance and maximum entropy modeling were used for spatial data analysis, by means of the spatial analysis software packages. The use of geostatistical tools allowed evidencing the shift of the infection from the urban to the wild-sylvatic areas and the reemergence of cases after a period of quiescence, independent of the reintroduction from other plague areas. Public Library of Science 2021-04-02 /pmc/articles/PMC8018616/ /pubmed/33798208 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0249464 Text en © 2021 Fernandes et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Fernandes, Diego Leandro Reis da Silva
Gomes, Elainne Christine de Souza
Bezerra, Matheus Filgueira
e Guimarães, Ricardo José de Paula Souza
de Almeida, Alzira Maria Paiva
Spatiotemporal analysis of bubonic plague in Pernambuco, northeast of Brazil: Case study in the municipality of Exu
title Spatiotemporal analysis of bubonic plague in Pernambuco, northeast of Brazil: Case study in the municipality of Exu
title_full Spatiotemporal analysis of bubonic plague in Pernambuco, northeast of Brazil: Case study in the municipality of Exu
title_fullStr Spatiotemporal analysis of bubonic plague in Pernambuco, northeast of Brazil: Case study in the municipality of Exu
title_full_unstemmed Spatiotemporal analysis of bubonic plague in Pernambuco, northeast of Brazil: Case study in the municipality of Exu
title_short Spatiotemporal analysis of bubonic plague in Pernambuco, northeast of Brazil: Case study in the municipality of Exu
title_sort spatiotemporal analysis of bubonic plague in pernambuco, northeast of brazil: case study in the municipality of exu
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8018616/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33798208
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0249464
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