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Probability of consolidation constrains novel serotype emergence in dengue fever virus
Since their first sequencing 40 years ago, Dengue virus (DENV) genotypes have shown extreme coherence regarding the serotype class they encode. Considering that DENV is a ribonucleic acid (RNA) virus with a high mutation rate, this behavior is intriguing. Here, we explore the effect of various param...
Autores principales: | , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8021166/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33819302 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0248765 |
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author | Sánchez-González, Gilberto Belak, Zachery R. Lozano, Luis Condé, Renaud |
author_facet | Sánchez-González, Gilberto Belak, Zachery R. Lozano, Luis Condé, Renaud |
author_sort | Sánchez-González, Gilberto |
collection | PubMed |
description | Since their first sequencing 40 years ago, Dengue virus (DENV) genotypes have shown extreme coherence regarding the serotype class they encode. Considering that DENV is a ribonucleic acid (RNA) virus with a high mutation rate, this behavior is intriguing. Here, we explore the effect of various parameters on likelihood of new serotype emergence. In order to determine the time scales of such an event, we used a Timed Markov Transmission Model to explore the influences of sylvatic versus peri-urban transmission, viral mutation rate, and vertical transmission on the probabilities of novel serotype emergence. We found that around 1 000 years are required for a new serotype to emerge, consistent with phylogenetic analysis of extant dengue serotypes. Furthermore, we show that likelihood of establishing chains of mosquito-human-mosquito infection, known as consolidation, is the primary factor which constrains novel serotype emergence. Our work illustrates the restrictions on and provides a mechanistic explanation for the low probability of novel dengue virus serotype emergence and the low number of observed DENV serotypes. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8021166 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-80211662021-04-14 Probability of consolidation constrains novel serotype emergence in dengue fever virus Sánchez-González, Gilberto Belak, Zachery R. Lozano, Luis Condé, Renaud PLoS One Research Article Since their first sequencing 40 years ago, Dengue virus (DENV) genotypes have shown extreme coherence regarding the serotype class they encode. Considering that DENV is a ribonucleic acid (RNA) virus with a high mutation rate, this behavior is intriguing. Here, we explore the effect of various parameters on likelihood of new serotype emergence. In order to determine the time scales of such an event, we used a Timed Markov Transmission Model to explore the influences of sylvatic versus peri-urban transmission, viral mutation rate, and vertical transmission on the probabilities of novel serotype emergence. We found that around 1 000 years are required for a new serotype to emerge, consistent with phylogenetic analysis of extant dengue serotypes. Furthermore, we show that likelihood of establishing chains of mosquito-human-mosquito infection, known as consolidation, is the primary factor which constrains novel serotype emergence. Our work illustrates the restrictions on and provides a mechanistic explanation for the low probability of novel dengue virus serotype emergence and the low number of observed DENV serotypes. Public Library of Science 2021-04-05 /pmc/articles/PMC8021166/ /pubmed/33819302 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0248765 Text en © 2021 Sánchez-González et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Sánchez-González, Gilberto Belak, Zachery R. Lozano, Luis Condé, Renaud Probability of consolidation constrains novel serotype emergence in dengue fever virus |
title | Probability of consolidation constrains novel serotype emergence in dengue fever virus |
title_full | Probability of consolidation constrains novel serotype emergence in dengue fever virus |
title_fullStr | Probability of consolidation constrains novel serotype emergence in dengue fever virus |
title_full_unstemmed | Probability of consolidation constrains novel serotype emergence in dengue fever virus |
title_short | Probability of consolidation constrains novel serotype emergence in dengue fever virus |
title_sort | probability of consolidation constrains novel serotype emergence in dengue fever virus |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8021166/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33819302 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0248765 |
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