Differing Age-Specific Cervical Cancer Incidence Between Different Types of Human Papillomavirus: Implications for Predicting the Impact of Elimination Programs

The elimination of cervical cancer rests on high efficacy of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines. The HPV type distribution among cases of invasive cervical cancer (ICC) is used to make predictions about the impact of eliminating different types of HPV, but accumulating evidence of differences in age-specific cancer incidence by HPV type exists. We used one of the largest population-based series of HPV genotyping of ICCs (n = 2,850; Sweden, 2002–2011) to estimate age-specific ICC incidence by HPV type and obtain estimates of the cancer-protective impact of the removal of different HPV types. In the base case, the age-specific ICC incidence had 2 peaks, and the standardized lifetime risk (SLTR, the lifetime number of cases per birth cohort of 100,000 females) for HPV-positive ICC was 651 per 100,000 female births. In the absence of vaccine types HPV 16 and HPV 18, the SLTR for ICC was reduced to 157 per 100,000 female births (24% of HPV-positive SLTR). Elimination of all 9 types that can currently be vaccinated against reduced the remaining SLTR to 47 per 100,000 female births (7%), the remaining ICC incidence only slowly increasing with age. In conclusion, after elimination of vaccine-protected HPV types, very few cases of ICC will be left, especially among fertile, reproductive-age women.