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A renewal equation model to assess roles and limitations of contact tracing for disease outbreak control
We propose a deterministic model capturing essential features of contact tracing as part of public health non-pharmaceutical interventions to mitigate an outbreak of an infectious disease. By incorporating a mechanistic formulation of the processes at the individual level, we obtain an integral equa...
Autores principales: | , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
The Royal Society
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8025303/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33868698 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.202091 |
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author | Scarabel, Francesca Pellis, Lorenzo Ogden, Nicholas H. Wu, Jianhong |
author_facet | Scarabel, Francesca Pellis, Lorenzo Ogden, Nicholas H. Wu, Jianhong |
author_sort | Scarabel, Francesca |
collection | PubMed |
description | We propose a deterministic model capturing essential features of contact tracing as part of public health non-pharmaceutical interventions to mitigate an outbreak of an infectious disease. By incorporating a mechanistic formulation of the processes at the individual level, we obtain an integral equation (delayed in calendar time and advanced in time since infection) for the probability that an infected individual is detected and isolated at any point in time. This is then coupled with a renewal equation for the total incidence to form a closed system describing the transmission dynamics involving contact tracing. We define and calculate basic and effective reproduction numbers in terms of pathogen characteristics and contact tracing implementation constraints. When applied to the case of SARS-CoV-2, our results show that only combinations of diagnosis of symptomatic infections and contact tracing that are almost perfect in terms of speed and coverage can attain control, unless additional measures to reduce overall community transmission are in place. Under constraints on the testing or tracing capacity, a temporary interruption of contact tracing may, depending on the overall growth rate and prevalence of the infection, lead to an irreversible loss of control even when the epidemic was previously contained. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8025303 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | The Royal Society |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-80253032021-04-16 A renewal equation model to assess roles and limitations of contact tracing for disease outbreak control Scarabel, Francesca Pellis, Lorenzo Ogden, Nicholas H. Wu, Jianhong R Soc Open Sci Mathematics We propose a deterministic model capturing essential features of contact tracing as part of public health non-pharmaceutical interventions to mitigate an outbreak of an infectious disease. By incorporating a mechanistic formulation of the processes at the individual level, we obtain an integral equation (delayed in calendar time and advanced in time since infection) for the probability that an infected individual is detected and isolated at any point in time. This is then coupled with a renewal equation for the total incidence to form a closed system describing the transmission dynamics involving contact tracing. We define and calculate basic and effective reproduction numbers in terms of pathogen characteristics and contact tracing implementation constraints. When applied to the case of SARS-CoV-2, our results show that only combinations of diagnosis of symptomatic infections and contact tracing that are almost perfect in terms of speed and coverage can attain control, unless additional measures to reduce overall community transmission are in place. Under constraints on the testing or tracing capacity, a temporary interruption of contact tracing may, depending on the overall growth rate and prevalence of the infection, lead to an irreversible loss of control even when the epidemic was previously contained. The Royal Society 2021-04-07 /pmc/articles/PMC8025303/ /pubmed/33868698 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.202091 Text en © 2021 The Authors. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Mathematics Scarabel, Francesca Pellis, Lorenzo Ogden, Nicholas H. Wu, Jianhong A renewal equation model to assess roles and limitations of contact tracing for disease outbreak control |
title | A renewal equation model to assess roles and limitations of contact tracing for disease outbreak control |
title_full | A renewal equation model to assess roles and limitations of contact tracing for disease outbreak control |
title_fullStr | A renewal equation model to assess roles and limitations of contact tracing for disease outbreak control |
title_full_unstemmed | A renewal equation model to assess roles and limitations of contact tracing for disease outbreak control |
title_short | A renewal equation model to assess roles and limitations of contact tracing for disease outbreak control |
title_sort | renewal equation model to assess roles and limitations of contact tracing for disease outbreak control |
topic | Mathematics |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8025303/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33868698 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.202091 |
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