Timing of social distancing policies and COVID-19 mortality: county-level evidence from the U.S.

Using county-level data on COVID-19 mortality and infections, along with county-level information on the adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), we examine how the speed of NPI adoption affected COVID-19 mortality in the United States. Our estimates suggest that adopting safer-at-home o...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina, Kaushal, Neeraj, Muchow, Ashley N.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2021
Materias:
Original Paper
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8027710/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33846667
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00148-021-00845-2
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author Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina
Kaushal, Neeraj
Muchow, Ashley N.
author_facet Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina
Kaushal, Neeraj
Muchow, Ashley N.
author_sort Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina
collection PubMed
description Using county-level data on COVID-19 mortality and infections, along with county-level information on the adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), we examine how the speed of NPI adoption affected COVID-19 mortality in the United States. Our estimates suggest that adopting safer-at-home orders or non-essential business closures 1 day before infections double can curtail the COVID-19 death rate by 1.9%. This finding proves robust to alternative measures of NPI adoption speed, model specifications that control for testing, other NPIs, and mobility and across various samples (national, the Northeast, excluding New York, and excluding the Northeast). We also find that the adoption speed of NPIs is associated with lower infections and is unrelated to non-COVID deaths, suggesting these measures slowed contagion. Finally, NPI adoption speed appears to have been less effective in Republican counties, suggesting that political ideology might have compromised their efficacy.
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spelling pubmed-80277102021-04-08 Timing of social distancing policies and COVID-19 mortality: county-level evidence from the U.S. Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina Kaushal, Neeraj Muchow, Ashley N. J Popul Econ Original Paper Using county-level data on COVID-19 mortality and infections, along with county-level information on the adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), we examine how the speed of NPI adoption affected COVID-19 mortality in the United States. Our estimates suggest that adopting safer-at-home orders or non-essential business closures 1 day before infections double can curtail the COVID-19 death rate by 1.9%. This finding proves robust to alternative measures of NPI adoption speed, model specifications that control for testing, other NPIs, and mobility and across various samples (national, the Northeast, excluding New York, and excluding the Northeast). We also find that the adoption speed of NPIs is associated with lower infections and is unrelated to non-COVID deaths, suggesting these measures slowed contagion. Finally, NPI adoption speed appears to have been less effective in Republican counties, suggesting that political ideology might have compromised their efficacy. Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2021-04-08 2021 /pmc/articles/PMC8027710/ /pubmed/33846667 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00148-021-00845-2 Text en © The Author(s) 2021 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Original Paper
Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina
Kaushal, Neeraj
Muchow, Ashley N.
Timing of social distancing policies and COVID-19 mortality: county-level evidence from the U.S.
title Timing of social distancing policies and COVID-19 mortality: county-level evidence from the U.S.
title_full Timing of social distancing policies and COVID-19 mortality: county-level evidence from the U.S.
title_fullStr Timing of social distancing policies and COVID-19 mortality: county-level evidence from the U.S.
title_full_unstemmed Timing of social distancing policies and COVID-19 mortality: county-level evidence from the U.S.
title_short Timing of social distancing policies and COVID-19 mortality: county-level evidence from the U.S.
title_sort timing of social distancing policies and covid-19 mortality: county-level evidence from the u.s.
topic Original Paper
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8027710/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33846667
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00148-021-00845-2
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