Epidemiological features of primary breast lymphoma patients and development of a nomogram to predict survival

BACKGROUND: Studies on the epidemiology and prognosis of primary breast lymphoma (PBL) are lack for low incidence. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the epidemiological characteristics of PBL and develop nomograms to predict patient survival. METHODS: Data of patients who were diagnosed with PBL from 1975 to 2011 and incidence rate of PBL from 1975 to 2017 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Time-varying multivariable Cox regression analysis was performed to identify independent prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) and disease-specific survival (DSS). Nomograms were constructed based on the independent prognostic factors identified in multivariate Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: A total of 1427 patients diagnosed with PBL were identified with the average age of 67.1 years. The overall incidence of PBL is 1.35/1,000,000 (adjusted to the United States standard population in 2000) from 1975 to 2017, with a significant upward trend by an annual percentage change (APC) of 2.91 (95%CI 2.29–3.94, P < 0.05). Age, sex, race, year of diagnosis, marital status, histological subtype, Ann Arbor Stage, and treatment modality were assessed as independent prognostic factors for OS and DSS by multivariable Cox regression (P < 0.05). Nomograms were constructed to predict the 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10- year OS and DSS. The concordance index (C-index) and calibration plots showed robustness and accuracy of the nomogram. CONCLUSION: The overall incidence of PBL was steadily increasing over the past four decades. Nomograms constructed can predicting 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year OS and identify patients with high-risk PBL.